Sunday 18 August 2019

Rise in property prices to slow down - but house costs still expected to go up over next three years

(Stock photo)
(Stock photo)
Charlie Weston

Charlie Weston

The pace of property price rises is set to ease off, but prices are still expected to go up over the next three years.

That is according to a broad range of property professionals questioned for a Central Bank survey.

It comes as the Central Bank is set to reveal its annual review of its mortgage lending limits, but it is not expected to make any changes to these.

House prices nationally will rise by 8pc this year and by more than 15pc in the next three years, according to a survey carried out by the Society of Chartered Surveyors of property experts for the Central Bank.

Respondents included estate agents, auctioneers and surveyors, economists, market analysts and academics.

A 15pc rise in prices would see the average priced house of €266,000 becoming €40,000 more expensive in three years.

According to the survey, Dublin prices are set to rise by 8pc. This is down from previous expectations of a 10pc increase.

The latest figures from the Central Statistics Office indicate property prices were up 12.8pc in the year to September, so a rise of 8pc next year would represent an easing off in the current rate of property price inflation.

The respondents concluded that a lack of housing supply was the most important factor pushing up prices. This applied to the supply of both new and second-hand houses.

Economist with Davy Stockbrokers David McNamara, who is involved in compiling the survey, said the findings were in line with Davy's expectations for the near term.

Experts' views on house prices easing off are in contrast to the Economic and Social Research Institute (Esri), which said this month it sees prices surging ahead by 20pc in the next three years.

The latest survey results come as the Central Bank publishes its annual review of mortgage lending restrictions, which determine how much mortgage buyers can borrow and the size of deposit they need.

The rules dictate that first-time buyers need a 10pc deposit, and they are restricted to borrowing no more than three-and-a-half times their incomes.

Other borrowers need a 20pc deposit, and buy-to-let investors need a deposit of 30pc of the property's value.

However, Central Bank Governor Philip Lane has already hinted he is unlikely to change the rules this year.

He came in for criticism when he decided last year to allow first-time borrowers to have a deposit of 10pc, rather than 20pc for larger borrowings.

Professor Lane is set to come in for renewed criticism if he again changes the rules.

The average deposit size in Dublin is €50,000, and €25,000 outside the capital, according to a recent Central Bank study.

Irish Independent

Also in Business