By what percentage do you think house prices might rise or fall in 2019?
Ask the experts
Current indications suggest that prices will rise by between 3-5pc in 2019. This outlook reflects the notable increase in prices over recent years, tempered by the tighter liquidity levels in the market due to the restrictive mortgage lending policy.
Please log in or register with Independent.ie for free access to this article.
It is likely that property prices will rise by between 3-5pc in 2019 based on current trends. An increase in the supply of new homes, especially in Dublin which continues to grow; coupled with a continuation of the Central Bank Regulations for lending will continue to lead to a stabilisation of house prices. As was the case in 2018, we anticipate the majority of the uplift in prices to come in the first half of the year, when the lending institutions have a fresh book of lending rule exemptions available to them.
With increased supply coming to market and the recent confirmation by the Central Bank that its macroprudential rules will remain unchanged, we expect a modest uplift in prices of 3-4pc. The benefits of the lending rules are clear to see, preventing a return to previous unsustainable house price inflation. However, the SCSI is concerned that the management of exemptions is skewing market values and distorting demand across a calendar year, creating price spikes when credit is available and almost stopping market activity when it's not.
Real Estate Alliance members would anticipate a modest increase, if any. We think possibly up to 3pc. The political uncertainty around Brexit, lending caps by the Central Bank and the increased supply of new homes are all pointing to a fairly flat market during 2019.
The fact that the mortgage exemptions are front loaded to the beginning of the year means we are likely to see much of this growth happening early in 2019.