Ask the experts: Can you remember a period when supply of residential property was so tight? Where will supply go in 2018?
I can remember times when building activity was depressed during the mid-1980s and early 1990s, but we had marginal immigration rates, bigger household sizes and a smaller population at the time. Even then, public house-building programmes continued to be delivered. While supply in the private housing market has always ebbed and flowed over the years, I cannot recall a time when public-housing supply was as low as it is today. The challenge for both sectors (residential and commercial building) is that they are fishing in the same pond for contractors, tradespeople and professionals.
Áine Myler is the director general of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI). She holds a master’s degree in planning and development economics, and has worked in estate agency for 26 years and in later years as a consultant.
These are particularly unusual times. I don't recollect a time in the past when supply was ever as constrained as it is now. That said, we have a lot more data now on the market than at any other time so our knowledge of the market is much greater.
Michael Grehan is MD of the Sherry FitzGerald estate agency group, which has a 66-branch-strong network, including franchises. He has more than 28 years’ experience in the property sector.
No! The young/FTB market is being catered for with new builds. The balance of the market is logjammed partly because downsizers are not catered for and as a result, market mobility is restricted. A trigger needs to be found to release underoccupied larger family homes for those wishing to trade up.
Darina Collins is a director and founding member of the Real Estate Alliance (REA), a partnership of more than 50 estate agency firms nationwide. She is also a partner in REA O’Brien Collins, the Drogheda-based estate agency.
I don't believe we ever had such a shortage of homes as we have now. It was created by virtually no building for a period of 10 years. I believe it will take many years to see 20,000 new houses being built. I'd say in 2018 maybe 15,000 to 17,000, if we're lucky. When money is cheap for purchasers and hard to get for developers, stock will always be tight. Supply was an issue probably before the last tranche of home-building happened around the period from 1997 onwards. Very few new homes had been built and it eventually led to a flood of supply throughout the country.
Pat Davitt is the CEO of the Institute of Professional Auctioneers and Valuers (IPAV). He has more than 35 years’ experience in the sector, spending much of it running a family-based auctioneering firm in Mullingar.