Thursday 17 October 2019

Newspapers a better economic guide than stock markets - BoE

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David Milliken

FLICKING through the business pages of 'The Guardian' newspaper could be a better guide to how Britain's economy is faring than following stock market moves, Bank of England research shows.

Britain's central bank has been investigating over several years whether it can glean anything about the economic outlook by analysing the ratio of positive words in news stories such as 'growth', to less upbeat terms such as 'recession'.

Researchers said analysing the paper's business, politics and economics coverage gives a slightly better steer than looking at share prices, but less useful than monthly business and household surveys.

The left-leaning 'Guardian' was chosen because it was free and easy to download, and including more media might improve results further. Monthly purchasing managers' indices and the GfK consumer sentiment index were the best growth predictors, they said.

Reuters

Irish Independent

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