Monday 20 November 2017

Roy Hodgson appointed England manager

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha ha ... snort ... ha ha ha ha ha ... snort ... ha ha ha ha ha. Sometimes things happen that just put you in a better mood, all of which has an impact on consumer confidence. England's appointment of Roy Hodgson as football manager ahead of Euro 2012 is just one of those moments. Sporting success appears to have an impact on a nation's economy, most recently seen by the 0.8 per cent increase in the rugby world cup winner New Zealand's GDP in the last quarter.

Irish bonds yields

The Irish government note yield crept down last week by a tiny 0.07 per cent to 6.81 per cent. The NTMA has confirmed that it will plough ahead with plans to test the markets in June or July despite the wonky interest rate. This will be the first engagement with the primary market in 18 months and will be scrutinised heavily so as to give clues as to whether there is any potential need for a second bailout.

Fall in visitors to Ireland

There were 13,700 fewer visitors to Ireland in the first quarter of the year in comparison to the same period in 2011. This is a negative development for the economy as shops, restaurants, pubs and accommodation providers as well as all of the other hundreds of outlets that service people from abroad have lost out on the revenues from these missed customers. In addition, the Government loses out on VAT, corporation tax and other related taxes.

VAT receipts

The taxman bled us very successfully in the first four months of the year, with tax revenues up 7.6 per cent and about 3.5 per cent ahead of target. Much of this was due to smaller than expected repayments to companies under the corporate tax regime. However, it also showed that despite the mad VAT hike in January, consumer spending wasn't completely extinguished as VAT receipts were 1.4 per cent ahead of forecasts. Mind you, the official forecasts aren't worth the paper they are written on.

Unemployment

Unemployment statistics are about as clear as the inner workings of the Vatican. The seasonally adjusted live register numbers show an increase of 100 poor souls to 436,000. But when you crunch into the figures a bit, it shows that the total number on the live register has fallen by 10,000 since the November 2011 peak of 446,000. New registrations have fallen to the lowest level since 2009 -- with the exception of a mega blip in August 2011.

Euro/Sterling

The value of the euro against the sterling has fallen from £0.90 to £0.81 within the last year. This is a yippee moment for those companies selling into the UK market. Around 15.5 per cent of last year's exports were sold to our British neighbours. A lower euro means either a company can lower its prices (and hence sell more goods) or charge the same price and when translated back into their home currency, it's worth more in their accounts.

Change in the number of development land deals

According to CBRE, there was a 133 per cent increase in the number of development land transactions in 2011. However, this is off a very low base of just six deals done during that year. In addition, the value of these contracts is but a faint shadow of this €4bn market in 2006. The patient isn't dead ... just barely breathing and with a faint, faint heartbeat.

Used car sales

The number of used cars shifted on CarsIreland.ie rose by 2.3 per cent over the last week, which is an indication of some level of consumer spending. Average prices dropped by 3.1 per cent, which helps stimulate demand.

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