Friday 20 April 2018

Recovery analysis needs care

WHAT a difference two years makes. This time in 2010 it was felt that Ireland was being hit nearly every day by a damning research note from one of the big investment banks.

Now, however, that is beginning to change. Apart from a note from Tosca Funds last month which painted Ireland as a future client-state relying on contributions from its emigrants overseas (not as far-fetched as some might think), the banks have been fairly positive on our recovery.

The latest praise came from Barclays, which pointed to the robust way the Government has implemented the fiscal adjustment and brought back competitiveness so far.

It's not all sweetness and light though, the Barclays analysts warn that the on-going euro crisis could threaten a long-term recovery.

There is a danger that we can get too caught up in what the analysts think of us.

After all, the stereotype of the fly-by-night 'City Boy' who doesn't know anything but looks sharp in his slick suit and flash car exists for a reason.

Nevertheless, these research notes are important because they verbalise the market view on Ireland.

The yield on the benchmark nine-year bond fell to a 30-month low of 4.75pc yesterday, showing things are moving in the right direction. Sustaining it now is the challenge.

Irish Independent

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