Business Irish

Saturday 17 March 2018

Dublin house prices to rise significantly, say almost half of CEOs

For Sale signs near the South Circular Road in Dublin
For Sale signs near the South Circular Road in Dublin
For Sale signs in Rialto
John Mulligan

John Mulligan

Only a couple of weeks ago, Finance Minister Michael Noonan said house price increases don't worry him and that there was no evidence of a new property bubble in Dublin.

House prices in the capital have jumped 15pc in the past 12 months, but are doing so having lost a big chunk of their value during the crash.

A dearth of new housing has forced prices up, and it will stay that way for at least another year, as there are still far too few new homes being built to cater for pent-up demand.

Unsurprisingly, a new survey of Irish chief executives by estate agency CBRE has a strong focus on the property sector.

Nearly half of those CEOs surveyed -- 48pc -- expect Dublin house prices to "increase significantly" over the next three years, while 17pc expect them to increase slightly.

Somewhat surprisingly, given the evidence that prices are on the rise and that there is a clear lack of appropriate new housing supply, 27pc of CEOs still expect the capital's house prices to fall further. Outside of Dublin, 68pc of the surveyed CEOs think house prices there will rise over the next three years.


And amid a rush by international buyers to snap up assets from hotels to office blocks in the capital, virtually all -- 94pc -- of the CEOs surveyed by CBRE expect commercial property prices in Dublin to keep rising over the next three years.

Just over half -- 51pc -- are anticipating a slight increase in prices, but 43pc are predicting significant rises.

"Not surprisingly, respondents are less bullish about values outside of the core Dublin market, with just over half expecting an increase in commercial property prices outside of the capital over the next three -year period and 33pc of respondents expecting non-Dublin commercial property values to remain static in the period," according to CBRE head of research Marie Hunt.

The CBRE survey also showed that 98pc of CEOs expect GDP to rise next year, with two-thirds of them forecasting that it will increase by between 1pc and 2pc.

The company bosses said the most likely source of any negative impact on the economy will come from our own banks.

Perhaps that has something to do with the fact that 85pc of those polled by CBRE said they are less favourable towards bank deposits for investment purposes than they were 12 months ago.

It almost certainly has something more to do though with the fact that the ECB slashed interest rates twice this year, leaving them now at a paltry 0.25pc. Great for tracker mortgages, not so good when leaving your money on deposit.

But despite all the positive sentiment towards the property market, even CBRE has acknowledged that the best bit of news from its survey is that 75pc of CEOs it surveyed expect to hire more staff next year.

And while the return of a healthy property market is to be welcomed, giving people back their self-worth is surely what really matters.

Irish Independent

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