EU could supply close to 35pc of the increase in global dairy demand by 2030
Global trade in dairy products will grow at a significantly slower pace between now and 2030 than in the past decade, a new outlook report by the European Commission has said.
However, growing world import demand driven by population growth (notably in Africa) and income growth will drive higher consumption of dairy products over the outlook period.
The EU and New Zealand will lead the export market.
There will also be more of a focus on added-value products for which the EU has a clear competitive advantage.
In addition, consumer preferences for differentiated products (e.g. organic, GM-free, pasture-based, local) will drive the development of alternatives to conventional production systems. Environmental requirements will also play an increasing role in shaping production systems.
By 2030, world milk production is expected to exceed 1 billion tonnes, increasing annually by more than 15 million tonnes, slightly faster than in the last decade.
More than 40pc of this increase should take place in India, which is continuously investing in large modern farms and infrastructure.
However, India is expected to trade on the world market only in exceptional market conditions (e.g. export subsidies for SMP because of high stocks, as observed in 2018).