Saturday 20 January 2018

Consensus forecast predicts economy to grow by 5.6pc in 2015

Irish exports are continuing to grow strongly
Irish exports are continuing to grow strongly

Paul O'Donoghue

A consensus forecast from 14 leading sources suggests that the Irish economy will grow by 5.6pc this year and 4pc in 2016.

The forecast, carried out by DKM Economic Consultants, based its estimate on projections from both Irish and international bodies such as the IMF, the EU and the OECD.

It found that the main driver for growth is a "strong increase for domestic demand", comprising of areas such as national consumption and government expenditure, rather than external demand, which Ireland has previously relied on for growth.

The study estimated that unemployment will fall to 9.5pc in 2015 and 8.3pc in 2016. DKM said that this is likely to "give a boost to consumer sentiment despite a slight dip in September."

The forecast also estimated that private consumption will grow by 3.1pc in 2015 and 2.7pc in 2016 while the weak Euro is expected to help exports grow by 10pc this year and 5.5pc next year.

DKM chairman Brendan Dowling said that the results highlighted that "the macroeconomic forecasts for 2015 and 2016 have been revised upwards.

However, he added: "most forecasts continue to see a sharp decline in growth in 2016."

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