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Signs of a floor after three years of falling retail property values

Despite continued declines on Dublin’s shopping streets, the rate of decline has consistently slowed

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Shops on Dublin's Grafton Street were forced to close by the pandemic. Photograph: Leon Farrell/RollingNews.ie

Shops on Dublin's Grafton Street were forced to close by the pandemic. Photograph: Leon Farrell/RollingNews.ie

Shops on Dublin's Grafton Street were forced to close by the pandemic. Photograph: Leon Farrell/RollingNews.ie

Values and rents for Dublin retail properties may have stemmed their three-year downward spiral, although upmarket Grafton and Henry Street shops are still suffering from falling values.

This is the first positive quarter for the retail sector since 2019,” according to Colm Lauder, analyst with Goodbody stockbrokers.

Overall retail rents rose 0.2pc in the quarter while capital retail values rose 0.1pc.

However, capital values fell in Grafton St by 0.4pc and in Henry St by 1.3pc in the quarter bringing their falls over the 12 months to 9pc and 13.7pc respectively according to MSCI/SCSI Ireland Quarterly Property Index, the authoritative gauge of the investment performance of Irish commercial properties.

The overall improvement in retail values is attributable to other areas of Dublin city centre where they rose 3.1pc in the quarter and retail warehousing values also rose 0.2pc.

The former may be due to food and beverage outlets in places such as Dawson, Dame and O’Connell streets.

If that was the case then it may reflect improved values for landlords such as Henderson Park which owns The Ivy property on Dawson Street. Mr Lauder points out that the value of shopping centres fell 4.7pc over the last 12 months while retail parks/warehouse value rose 0.4pc on the year.

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“Despite continued declines on Dublin’s high streets, the rate of decline has consistently slowed since the initial sharp Covid-related correction of Q2 2020,” he adds.

Benefitting most from weaker retail activity was the industrial and logistics sector where rental growth was strongest – up 0.9pc in Q1 as the shift to online shopping boosted demand for warehouse space.

Consequently logistics values rose 2pc in the quarter and 15pc over the 12 months.

Overall office rents rose 0.3pc in the quarter.

While the value of Dublin offices stabilised with a figure of 0.1pc growth in the most recent quarter, over the 12 months their values are still down 0.5pc.

Suburban offices declined by 0.5pc over the quarter, bringing their 12-month value falls to 1.4pc.

Max Reilly of SCSI and JLL says the outlook for second-quarter investment and lettings is also positive.


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