Connacht is expected to see the strongest growth in development land values in 2020, according to members of the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland (SCSI) in a survey conducted prior to the outbreak of the coronavirus.
It showed members expecting a 5pc increase in development land values in the west of the country across all three key sectors, residential, industrial as well as in mixed use office and retail.
This growth follows on increased prices in the province in 2019 where industrial development land prices rose by 7pc and mixed-use commercial land rose 6pc. But western residential land values were unchanged in 2019.
Expectations for Dublin are more mixed with forecasts that prices could grow by 4pc for industrial land and 5pc for mixed-use land while Dublin residential land will stay flat this year. This indicates a slowdown in the pace of Dublin price growth as industrial land in the capital rose 5pc in 2019, mixed-use land rose 7pc and residential rose by a modest 2pc.
A slowdown is also expected in the rest of Leinster where prices are expected to remain unchanged across all sectors after a 5pc rise in residential development land prices in 2019. Munster is also expected to see prices unchanged across all sectors after industrial was the only sector to see an increase (5pc) in 2019. It is only in Dublin, where prices are higher, that there have been some indicators of increased supply, but across Ireland generally, supply levels remained unchanged in 2019.
One of the Dublin industrial sites to sell so far this year saw a 2.31-acre site in Baldonnell Business Park bought by ATC Computer Transport and Logistics for more than the €1m price guided by agents Savills. One of the more valuable industrial development properties to sell in Connacht was a 5.36-acre site at N5 Business Park, Castlebar, Co Mayo, which sold for €1,605,000 at a BidX1 auction in February. When it comes to demand the SCSI survey shows that despite the stabilisation of prices only 2pc of surveyors nationally felt that there will be a supply and demand balance in 2020. However, markets vary and in Dublin agents were evenly split with 29pc agreeing there will be a balance, 33pc believing supply will fall short of demand and 37pc believing supply exceeds demand.
In Leinster, 40pc expect balance and 35pc felt that supply was stronger than demand. Munster appears to have the most plentiful supply with 57pc believing it exceeds demand. Connacht agents are relatively evenly divided as the province's prices catch up with the market in the rest of the country.