Monday 21 October 2019

'More than one-in-three chance' of UK recession

The different Brexit scenarios for the world's fifth-largest economy make it hard to gauge the outlook for the year ahead. Photo: REUTERS
The different Brexit scenarios for the world's fifth-largest economy make it hard to gauge the outlook for the year ahead. Photo: REUTERS

Andy Bruce

The UK economy is increasingly showing signs of strain as the Brexit crisis and global slowdown intensify, with the loss of momentum appearing to spread to areas which have been sources of growth.

The jobs market, which has long been a silver lining for the economy, is also starting to show signs of slowing, raising questions about the strength of consumer spending.

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The different Brexit scenarios for the world's fifth-largest economy make it hard to gauge the outlook for the year ahead, not least for the Bank of England, and some investors fear Britain is flirting with recession.

Economists polled by Reuters last month put the probability of a recession within a year at 35pc.

Pessimism among businesses has reached the highest level in years.

The gauges of future activity in the Lloyds Business Barometer, CBI Growth Indicator and IHS Markit/CIPS surveys have all weakened recently.

Reuters

Irish Independent

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