Friday 20 January 2017

Paddy Power says chance of Trump win is skyrocketing, stands to lose €3m

Amy Tennery

Published 09/11/2016 | 03:52

Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump. Photo: Dan Reiland/AP
Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump. Photo: Dan Reiland/AP

ONLINE trading platform PredictIt and bookmaker Paddy Power showed a massive reversal of fortune for the U.S. presidential candidates Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Hillary Clinton, with the New York businessman's chances of taking the White House skyrocketing on both.

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Trump stunned many political experts, showing a slight edge on Clinton in several swing states after voting had ended in more than two-thirds of the 50 U.S. states.

Paddy Power put Trump's chance of victory at 83.3pc and Clinton's at 22.2 percent. The two had been in essentially opposite positions on Tuesday morning.

The Irish bookmaker stands to take a €3 million hit if Trump wins, said Paddy Power spokesman Féilim Mac An Iomaire, who said the dramatic reversal in odds was reminiscent of what it saw in the "Brexit" vote for Britain to leave the European Union.

"You could say it's deja vu again," said Mac An Iomaire. "Much like Brexit, it looked to be following the odds early on before a dramatic turnaround."

While opinion polls went back and forth leading into Britain's June 23 referendum on whether or not to remain in the EU, betting odds favored the "remain" campaign. Britons voted to leave by 52 percent to 48 percent.

A similar trajectory played out on the online trading platform PredictIt, which was launched in 2014 and is jointly run by Victoria University in Wellington, New Zealand, and Washington-based political consulting firm Aristotle International Inc.

Clinton led Trump in PredictIt's market on who will win the White House throughout the campaign, but news of her Republican challenger's surprise momentum sent her chance of winning the election plummeting more than 50 percentage points from its level Tuesday morning to 25 percent.

NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 09: Republican president-elect Donald Trump delivers his acceptance speech during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 09: Republican president-elect Donald Trump delivers his acceptance speech during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 09: Republican president-elect Donald Trump delivers his acceptance speech during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Spencer Platt/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 09: Republican president-elect Donald Trump delivers his acceptance speech during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Chairman of the Republican National Committee (RNC) Reince Priebus (R) hugs Republican presidential elect Donald Trump during election night at the New York Hilton Midtown in New York on November 9, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / JIM WATSONJIM WATSON/AFP/Getty Images
People cheer as voting results for Florida come in at Republican presidential nominee Donald Trumps election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown on November 8, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Republican presidential elect Donald Trump gestures while speaking during election night at the New York Hilton Midtown in New York on November 9, 2016. Photo: Getty
Republican presidential elect Donald Trump (L) gestures next to his family as he arrives to speak during election night at the New York Hilton Midtown in New York
Republican president-elect Donald Trump embraces his wife Melania Trump during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Republican president-elect Donald Trump embraces his wife Melania Trump during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 09: Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, delivers a speech as Republican president-elect Donald Trump looks on during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Reince Priebus, chairman of the Republican National Committee, delivers a speech as Republican president-elect Donald Trump looks on during his election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Republican presidential elect Donald Trump (L) arrives with his family on stage to speak during election night at the New York Hilton Midtown in New York on November 9, 2016. Trump stunned America and the world Wednesday, riding a wave of populist resentment to defeat Hillary Clinton in the race to become the 45th president of the United States. / AFP PHOTO / MANDEL NGANMANDEL NGAN/AFP/Getty Images
NEW YORK, NY - NOVEMBER 09: Republican president-elect Donald Trump gives greets people in the crowd after delivering his acceptance speech at the New York Hilton Midtown in the early morning hours of November 9, 2016 in New York City. Donald Trump defeated Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Campaign chairman John Podesta speaks on stage at Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's election night event at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center November 9, 2016 in New York City. Clinton is running against Republican nominee, Donald J. Trump to be the 45th President of the United States. (Photo by Drew Angerer/Getty Images)
Hillary Clinton tweeted "Whatever happens tonight, thank you for everything."/ Pic via @HillaryClinton
A graphic depicting Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump squaring off in a boxing ring sits in Times Square on November 8, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
The Trump family and team watch the results (Photo: Twitter/Donald Trump)
Jake Krupa colors in an electoral map as states projected for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump or Democratic Presidential candidate Hillary Clinton at an election watching party in Coconut Grove, Florida. AFP PHOTO / RHONA WISERHONA WISE/AFP/Getty Images
The dollar tumbled against the yen and euro while the Mexican peso fell off a cliff as polling results in the knife-edge US presidential race pointed to a strong showing by Donald Trump. AFP PHOTO / BEHROUZ MEHRIBEHROUZ MEHRI/AFP/Getty Images
Ivanka Trump tweets: "Such a surreal moment to vote for my father for President of the United States! Make your voice heard and vote! #Election2016" Pic via Twitter/ @IvankaTrump
People watch voting results at Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's election night event at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center (Photo by Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images)
A woman reacts as she watches voting results at Democratic presidential nominee former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's election night event at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
People cheer at Republican presidential nominee Donald Trumps election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown on November 8, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
An employee of a foreign exchange trading company stands in front of a monitor displaying Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton (L) and Republican presidential nominee (Photo by Yuya Shino/Getty Images)
A police officer stands outside Trump Tower in New York City on election day November 8, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / DOMINICK REUTERDOMINICK REUTER/AFP/Getty Images
People vote on the US presidential election at Santa Monica City Hall on November 8, 2016 in Santa Monica, California / AFP PHOTO / Frederic J. BROWNFREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP/Getty Images
Nicolette Janoski displays a sticker after voting on November 8, 2016 in Fort Worth, Texas. (Photo by Ron Jenkins/Getty Images)
Voters cast ballots at a laundrette in Chicago, Illinois Picture: AFP/Getty
People cheer as voting results for Iowa come in at Republican presidential nominee Donald Trumps election night event at the New York Hilton Midtown on November 8, 2016 in New York City. (Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
Donald Trump’s son Eric glances across at the ballot being filled by his wife Lara Yunasska while voting at the 53rd Street Library in New York. Photo: Bloomberg
A man poses for a picture near the cardboard cutouts of U.S. presidential nominees Hillary Clinton (L) and Donald Trump, at an election event hosted at the U.S. ambassador's residence in Kathmandu, Nepal November 9, 2016. REUTERS/Navesh Chitrakar
Supporters of U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton react at her election night rally in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 8, 2016. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
A supporter of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton bows her head at an election night rally in New York, U.S., November 8, 2016. REUTERS/Carlos Barria
A supporter of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds up a Trump doll during an election night party at a hotel in downtown Phoenix, Arizona on November 8, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / Laura SegallLAURA SEGALL/AFP/Getty Images
People watch elections results during election night at the Jacob K. Javits Convention Center in New York on November 9, 2016. / AFP PHOTO / DON EMMERTDON EMMERT/AFP/Getty Images
People gather around Times Square to view televised results of the US presidential election on November 9, 2016 in New York. / AFP PHOTO / EDUARDO MUNOZ ALVAREZEDUARDO MUNOZ ALVAREZ/AFP/Getty Images
Supporters of U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton react at her election night rally in Manhattan, New York, U.S., November 8, 2016. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson TPX IMAGES OF THE DAY
A man leans out of a Hummer shouting words in support of U.S. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump while driving through Times Square in New York, U.S., November 9, 2016. REUTERS/Mark Kauzlarich

Trump's chance, meanwhile, shot up more than 40 percentage points to around 65 percent.

It was the first time in the entire campaign that Trump had led Clinton on the platform, according to a PredictIt spokeswoman.

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