State of affairs in the Balkans
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Monday February 18 2008
What is Kosovo, why and how did it declare independence?
Before independence, Kosovo was a province of Serbia and home to about two million people. About 120,000 are ethnic Serbs, the rest are ethnic Albanians.
Kosovo is cherished by Serbs as home to celebrated Serb Orthodox monasteries, and as the site of the battle of Kosovo in 1389 in which Serbs battled, but were ultimately defeated by, Ottoman armies.
It has been administered by the the UN since 1999, when a 78-day Nato air campaign drove out Serb forces which were brutally suppressing ethnic Albanians.
All efforts at a compromise between Serbs and Kosovo Albanians on Kosovo's status have failed. In the absence of a deal, the ethnic Albanian leadership yesterday unilaterally declared independence.
Can Serbia retaliate?
Yes, but it won't militarily. All politicians in Belgrade opposed independence, but all have ruled out any new armed intervention.
It could cut electricity and water to Kosovo or refuse through-travel.
Who can Serbia rely on for backing?
With a common Slav and Orthodox background, Russia is a natural ally. Its support has already borne fruit, with a Russian takeover of Serbia's national oil company for a fraction of its value.
It is also using Kosovo as a diplomatic weapon, saying it sets an example to all countries harbouring regions with separatist ambitions - from Spain to Moldova.
Who is backing an independent Kosovo?
The EU and the US. Of the EU's 27 member states, all but Cyprus are likely to recognise Kosovo's independence eventually. Britain, France and Germany will do so straight away.
Who is sitting on the fence?
Diplomats estimate that 22 of the 27 EU states will recognise Kosovo in a reasonably swift manner. Some EU countries with breakaway regions or large minority groups of their own are nervous about recognising Kosovo. They include Spain, Romania, Greece and Slovakia.
What's the future for Kosovo and the Balkans?
Statehood should reassure investors and allow the new country to raise money to improve its infrastructure. But there will be no quick fix for a country with 45 per cent unemployment. The optimistic view is that independence will secure peace and economic expansion in the Balkans. (© The Daily Telegraph, London).
- Harry de Quetteville
