Shortfall of new homes in capital may be 24,000
Published 11/08/1999 | 00:11
A SHORTFALL of 24,000 new homes is likely in the Dublin area over the next six years, according to a report commissioned by HomeBond, the National House Building Guarantee Co. The rate at which new homes are being built in Dublin is failing to keep pace with the projected demand, despite the recent higher than expected level of completions, according to the report, which was undertaken by PA Consulting.
It points out that, at the current rates of building, the number of new residential units being built in Dublin is likely to average 10,300 per annum for the period 1998-2006. However, the Government-commissioned report Strategic Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area suggests that the prospective demand for the area is likely to run at 14,000 new dwellings each year for the 15 years to 2011.
PA says that in order to meet such demand, there would need to be an increase of 50pc in the completion rate. It is not optimistic, however, about such an increase in activity, despite the recent increases in planning approvals by Dublin local authorities.
The report, which is published in Housing Times, points out that there are a number of major infrastructure constraints to making all of the zoned residential land in Dublin available for development. Consequently, it is estimated that possibly 30,000-40,000 residential units out of the total 105,800 units forecast in the Government's Bacon report are not likely to be developed in the short-term.
PA also points out that much of the land for potential residential development in Dublin City is focused on the release of institutionally-zoned lands. PA points out that there is no ready mechanism that would ensure the timely release of such lands for housing. "Many religious institutions still appear to be reluctant to release such land banks for residential development.''
PA is also sceptical of the effectiveness of the Capital Gains Tax `carrot and stick' introduced by the Government to encourage the release of zoned land. The consultants explain that the special low rate of CGT applies only to sales of land with planning permission. The current average period to achieve planning permission is around 12 months, and can extend to two years. "Therefore, there is little likelihood that this initiative will ease the current supply situation. Nevertheless, it will encourage the release of land for speculative purposes.''
PA also raises concerns that the types of homes being supplied in Dublin may not be consistent with those required by the increasing numbers of young families. Many of the new housing units in Dublin are likely to come in high rise apartments in areas such as the Docklands, where 11,000 new homes are expected, and increased densities are also consistent with the Government's policy initiatives to stem urban sprawl.
Families still seem reluctant to move into apartments. PA points to the recent Dublin Corporation survey which found virtually no children resident in privately-owned Dublin apartments.
"The implications for a country with a high proportion of its population in, or moving into, the child bearing and rearing age, suggests that the type of housing coming onto the market in Dublin will be inconsistent with the requirements of a significant proportion of the population., New apartments plan for Dublin 4
OPPORTUNITIES to acquire new apartments in the sought-after Dublin 4 area may arise in the near future if two new apartment developments get the green light from the planning authorities.
Planning permission to develop 16 apartments is being sought for a site at the junction of Sandymount Avenue and Prince of Wales Terrace. The applicant, G. Cantrell, hopes to develop a three-storey block with underground car parking.
Meanwhile, planning permission for another Dublin 4 development of 75 apartments at Beggars Bush is being appealed to An Bord Pleanála. The developers, Orpengrove Ltd., had been granted permission by Dublin Corporation for the four-block development at Cranmer Lane on a site which had been used for industrial/warehouse purposes.
On the other side of Dublin, a new development of 163 three-bed semis and terrace houses is being planned on a site bounded by Nangor Road at Kilmahuddrick, Clondalkin. The developers, Durkan New Homes Ltd., are seeking permission from South Dublin Co. Council for what they describe as the first phase of an overall development on a 17.9-acre site.
In Tallaght, a 72-apartment development is being planned by Bunty Properties for Killinarden Heights. They are seeking permission for the two-bedroom apartments in 12 three-storey blocks as well as the provision of a single-storey residents' laundry drying area.
Mervyn Lloyd, Leitrim Airlies Hotel, Mohill, sold for a satisfactory figure.
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