Complex formula predicts Ireland 'most likely' to win Six Nations from England on points difference
Joe Schmidt's side has 11pc chance of winning grand Slam according to QBE calculations
Defending Six Nations champions Ireland are most likely to retain their crown on points difference from England according to a complex mathematical formula used by experts involved in predicting catastrophes.
QBE Business Insurance today released its findings and predicts that Schmidt's Ireland and Eddie Jones' England will both finish top of the table with just one defeat each, with the Boys in Green expected to fall to a four-point defeat in Twickenham, while Dylan Hartley's side are to come a cropper on the final day in an agonising one-point defeat to France.
The QBE Rugby Predictor, which has an 83pc success rate and correctly predicted the outcome of 38 out of the 47 games during the Rugby World Cup, has produced results for all five rounds and expects Ireland to emerge victorious courtesy of a superior points differential.
Below is the formula used:
The computer model, which has simulated the tournament 10,000 times to produce outcomes from 150,000 games, indicates that Ireland has a 35pc chance of winning this year’s tournament, with an 11pc chance of a third-ever Grand Slam.
England are the second favourite to win (30pc), France the third favourite (17pc), Wales fourth (14pc), Scotland the fifth favourite (4pc) and Italy the least likely to win (0pc).
Predicted scores for 2016 Six Nations
France 33 Italy 12
Scotland 13 England 21
Ireland 32 Wales 21
France 20 Ireland 22
Wales 26 Scotland 21
Italy 13 England 30
Wales 23 France 19
Italy 15 Scotland 30
England 25 Ireland 21
Ireland 44 Italy 11
England 26 Wales 20
Scotland 14 France 20
Wales 39 Italy 12
Ireland 30 Scotland 19
France 18 England 17
Below were some of the predictions form the 2015 Rugby World Cup.
Match QBE Predicted Outcome
South Africa v Wales 23-20 23-19
Scotland v USA 37-12 39-6
Ireland v Romania 40-8 44-
France v Italy 33-14 32-10