Winner will be Black and Blue
Saturday October 06 2007
"The key is to fight and fight." So said French coach Bernard Laporte this week as he aims to repeat the All Blacks Hallow'een nightmare of 1999. In his view, might is right, thrills are frills.
But, whoa, what about this? -- "There is no recipe. You must play, play, play." They're the thoughts of Justin Marshall, a man who should know, given his many years of service in the black number nine jersey.
Who is right and who is wrong? The result will, as ever, erase all philosophical pre-match debates. For those who prefer watching Fiji than enduring Scotland, one hopes for an All Blacks victory.
Their sometimes overbearing arrogance aside, the World Cup demands a Kiwi success, for their attacking priorities deserve to set the template for how the global game should develop, rather than the strait-jacketed, contact-driven, northern hemisphere style.
Ironically, there was a time when one would never have dared to utter such a sentiment with Les Bleus. But it is defensible given what seems to be a transparently destructive approach to the potential for beauty in this quarter-final.
Hence, France have picked an age-less tight five who will try to swoop and conquer a Kiwi lineout after the back three are peppered with touch finders from the raking boots of Lionel Beauxis, Cedric Haymans and Damien Traille.
The stated policy will be to avoid moving the ball beyond midfield, as France seek to retrieve a fraction of the possession they clear into the Millennium Stadium crowd from what they perceive to be a shoddy All Blacks' lineout.
The wingers may get a grubber to chase if they're lucky, otherwise France will try to maul from close in or rely on penalties or drop goals; in short, everything we don't associate with French rugby but have come to expect from Laporte.
And what if they don't make touch? Or don't find the space behind messrs Rokocoko and Sivivatu? The French don't have a sufficiently talented back-row to win the ball back; in that scenario, expect the world's best counter-attackers, support runners, off-loaders and seekers of space to make hay.
The key to France eventually overhauling New Zealand in that memorable 1999 semi-final was their willingness to attack at every opportunity; Australia regularly wound their Antipodean rivals with an equally dashing approach.
France, under Laporte, are a conservative and nervous bunch, as their performances against Argentina and Ireland proved, but then most teams retreat into a shell against this current bunch of All Blacks.
The World Cup
It is easy to see why they're spooked. Rokocoko (6) himself has scored as many tries as the whole French team in a string of victories stretching back to 2002; his side have scored 37 in that time. On five-year, head-to-head form, a 30-point margin of victory is about right.
In sweeping all before them in recent years, the All Blacks have conjured up many similarities to previous sides bearing the silver fern who were dominant between World Cups yet brittle during the actual competition. (Although, in retrospect, their form pre-'99 had been suspect before the French ambushed them).
New Zealand coach Graham Henry's oft-explained experimental policy, implemented without ever threatening his side's global pre-eminence, is structured to avoid the mistakes of the 2003 World Cup when Leon McDonald, this evening's full-back, was forced to play in midfield without any experience in the role.
To that end, his much-hyped rotation policy has been central to the interminable build-up to this year's event; yet, pointedly, his midfield partnership in particular has yet to establish itself and, over these past few years of global dominance, he has still rarely played the same duo in successive matches.
"We have guys who can fit anywhere," adds McAlister. "Especially Isaia Toeava, he is a reserve -- he can cover wing, he can play full-back and he can cover centre and inside centre as well." Sometimes, you can have too many options; Ireland's supposed strength in the back-row suddenly became a weakness during the World Cup thanks to selection errors.
Gifted
So it is that the gifted Toeava is surplus to requirements, so too the crafty Conrad Smith and the general at 12, Aaron Mauger, with recent first-choice Mils Muliaina instead playing outside McAlister, where he has this summer looked uncomfortable in defence.
"Graham Henry had seemed to indicate Mils Muliaina was his first choice full-back all along, but obviously the midfield hasn't worked out the way they wanted and they've gone for what is best for the team," argued former Clontarf and Argentina coach Alex Wylie.
Muliaina didn't start as centre in the opening game and hasn't played much rugby since thanks to a similar hamstring injury to that which afflicted Smith, while Toeava has been shunted around the side in a pool stage in which the side were barely tested.
Yet it won't matter a whit should France follow through with their limited, boring game-plan. Or is it all a supreme Bernie bluff? Luke McAlister dropped a word of warning into this week's pool of certainties.
"It looks like they have gone for more of a kicking game by putting Damien Traille in at full-back," he initially conceded. "But they are all pretty good runners, maybe they want to vary their attack."
With Yannick Jauzion restored to the starting line-up after being stunningly dropped by Laporte perhaps France can sense a chink in the opposition's uncertain midfield?
Sure, against a formidable opposition, the French will have to fight. But wouldn't it be great to see them play?
France may not be able to construct a miracle but one hopes that they don't utterly abandon their proud traditions amidst the quest.
If the Kiwi's forceful will demands, France may have no choice but to go down kicking and screaming. But, for the sake of the game, hopefully not just kicking.
New Zealand -- L MacDonald, J Rokocoko, M Muliaina, L McAlister, S Sivivatu, D Carter, B Kelleher, T Woodcock, A Oliver, C Hayman, 4 K Robinson, A Williams, J Collins, R McCaw (capt), R So'oialo; Reps: K Mealamu, N Tialata, C Jack, C Masoe, B Leonard, N Evans, I Toeava.
FRANCE -- D Traille, V Clerc, D Marty, Y Jauzion, C Heymans, L Beauxis, J-B Elissalde, O Milloud, R Ibanez (capt), P de Villiers, F Pelous, J Thion, S Betsen, T Dusautoir, J Bonnaire; Reps: D Szarzewski, J-B Poux, S Chabal, I Harinordoquy, F Michalak, C Dominici, C Poitrenaud
Betfair Match Odds: New Zealand 2-11, France 6-1, Draw 64-1
Betfair Handicap Odds: France +13.5pts 6-5, New Zealand -13.5pts 4-5
France v New Zealand Live on Setanta/TV3 and UTV, Tonight (8.0)