Ronan O'Gara is far from on the canvas today, but he'll have found this a long and difficult week. There's a pretty brutal public dimension to his omission from the Irish starting XV for today's Test match with the Springboks.

'Rog' has practically owned the Irish No 10 shirt for the past six years, in which time he has distinguished himself as one of the best fly-halves in world rugby.

So, it's a very brave decision by Declan Kidney to now start Jonathan Sexton ahead of him.

Ireland remain unbeaten in Test rugby this year and to close the deal with victory over the world and Tri Nations champions would be a wonderful fillip for their upcoming defence of the Six Nations crown.

This, then, is a scalp that Ireland will be desperate to take. As such, the call at out-half is a real leap of faith by Declan, no doubt prompted by Sexton's consistency with his province over the past six months coupled with an almost flawless performance against Fiji last Saturday. No question, Sexton has been ticking all the right boxes.

Put it this way, if Ireland were short a genuine international standard No 10 right now, this selection would be a 'no- brainer'.

That's not the case though. We've still got one of the best around. So, Declan's decision heaps huge pressure on Sexton to deliver in the crucible of a Test game against arguably the best team in world rugby. More pertinently, to do it knowing that Ronan is breathing down his neck.

viable

If the Leinster man has a blinder, it will be deemed a master-stroke. Declan will then be seen to have two genuinely viable fly-halves going forward.

But what if Sexton struggles? What if O'Gara has to be called in to rescue the situation? That could set the younger man back some distance and just deepen Ireland's dependency on Rog for the foreseeable future.

I'm pretty sure that Declan hasn't made this call on a whim. The gentler option would have been to start with Rog and introduce Sexton later in the afternoon. But no-one will have been monitoring these two guys in training closer than Declan. He's rolling the dice, but he'll have calculated the gamble.

Rog will be gutted, no question. He's one of the most driven rugby players I know. His first few years in an Irish shirt were spent vying with David Humphreys for the fly-half slot and, as coach at the time, I had to make some really difficult calls.

It's well known that Rog and I had a disagreement during the Autumn Series of 2005 after I replaced him with Humphreys early in the second-half of our defeat to Australia. It was a difficult, transitional time and Chris Latham pretty much ran over 'Humps' for a subsequent Wallaby try.

Rog was furious and we argued before training the following Tuesday at Terenure College. Basically, he felt the hook was out for him any time things got difficult for Ireland. Our exchange happened maybe 200 yards from where the rest of the squad were warming up and, suddenly, became depicted as a "massive training ground bust-up" by sections of the media.

The reality was that Rog just needed to get stuff off his chest and I absolutely respected him for doing it. Give me a straight-talker any day ahead of the lad who goes around the houses. Long-term, I believe that exchange actually strengthened the relationship between player and coach. And it goes without saying that Rog was absolutely pivotal to the success we had as a team.

In boxing parlance, I would liken Ireland today to a middleweight taking on a heavyweight. No question, the Irish squad is -- physically -- a long way ahead of where we were six or seven years ago.

But, today, they come up against the biggest team in world rugby. Genetics, not gym-work, are responsible for the Springboks' size. The Afrikaner is simply bigger and stronger than us Irish. So, head-on collisions are not the way forward today. You can't shy away from the physicality against South Africa, but it's absolutely crucial to play smart.

From scrum and line-out, we have to select our strike points along the gain line very carefully to generate momentum. We have to keep the Boks moving around the field so they can't load up their defensive line. Our continuity game will have to be in full flow and quick ruck ball will be a must in order to achieve a fast-flowing tempo to the game.

That's something we managed to achieve in 2006 and routed the Boks by a record score of 32-15, scoring four tries in the process.

Slow ruck ball was identified two weeks ago as a problem against Australia. Our lack of accuracy in terms of ball presentation and cleaning out made it very difficult to take Australia through phases and break down their defence.

Slow ball usually requires more attackers to win the ruck, leaving fewer outside with which to launch the next attack. It also allows the defence more time to organise and, hence, become harder to break down. So, it's a vicious cycle that usually results in kicking away possession.

South Africa will attack the gain line without too many frills today, attempting to create as many 'car crash' collisions as possible. Our ability to contain those attacks will depend on whether we can slow down their ruck ball.

The Boks will be happy to play a game of patience. They'll believe that, by creating enough 'car crashes' for maybe an hour, the dam will eventually burst. It's just the South African mindset, even it proved spectacularly mistaken on their last two visits to Dublin.

We have, arguably, the four best line-out jumpers in the world at Croke Park today, in the O'Connell-O'Callaghan and Matfield-Botha pods. And the visitors' front-row injuries should allow us break even in the scrum. So set-pieces shouldn't be a problem for Ireland.

Continuity will be the key then.

By any standards, this has been a disastrous autumn tour for the Springboks. Bad enough to lose the Test match to France, but going down to English club sides Leicester and Saracens can hardly have been part of Peter de Villiers' plans. They now run the risk of ending a hugely successful year on their knees.

Beating Italy will have earned few kudos at home and I suspect that the amount of fuel left in the Boks' tank is now running low. The question is, are they up for this or are their thoughts already on a Capetown beach?

If South Africa see this game as a way of redeeming the tour, they may just front-up for that final 80 minutes. Should that happen, Ireland will have to play to the best of their ability to win.

We have the players, no question. It's all about how well we execute the game-plan, particularly through our rookie No 10. How that dice rolls will impact hugely on the Six Nations looming.

- Eddie O'Sullivan

Irish Independent