Keep an ear to ground ahead of The Listener's Durkan Chase bid
Sunday November 22 2009
THE ante-post betting for the John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Steeplechase went up a few days ago and there appears to still be at least one anomaly in it.
The Grade One, to take place a fortnight from today, has gone to some illustrious sorts in the recent past, among them Kicking King, Beef Or Salmon and Native Upmanship. The 2007 winner -- The Listener -- is an excellent each-way bet at 5/1 to repeat that achievement.
Ladbrokes have Notre Pere in as 5/2 favourite, but he must be a long odds-against shot to run at all; even if he did, he would be no good thing over two and a half miles. Big Zeb -- another highly unlikely participant -- is next at 6/1, the same price as Joncol.
If one were to have a saver on the race, Paul Nolan's promising chaser appeals at those odds. He stayed on strongly over a two-mile trip on his first run this season at Naas that would have been at least four furlongs too short for him. He still managed to beat everything except Tranquil Sea -- form that now jumps off the page after last weekend.
That said, Joncol must prove himself against the top-notch established chasers and, over two and a half miles on heavy ground, few can live with The Listener when he is at his best.
Last season amounted to his annus horribilis. He somehow failed to win a race, but would have certainly completed back-to-back John Durkan successes had he not erred badly at the fourth-last.
Though the departure mid-race of Notre Pere deprives the form of much of its substance, The Listener could do no more than what he did in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal two weekends ago. Crucially, he jumped superbly under Andrew McNamara and destroyed My Will -- fifth in last season's Gold Cup and third in the Aintree National -- by an eased-down 15 lengths.
The ten-year-old has reserved his best performances for trips to Ireland -- almost certainly due to the underfoot conditions he habitually gets here -- and it is hard to imagine the John Durkan being run on anything other than testing ground at this juncture. He has run to Racing Post ratings of 166 and 171 in his two John Durkan runs -- a repeat in two weeks' time would have him thereabouts at worst.
Trainer Nick Mitchell has said that the race is The Listener's target, barring any misadventures between now and then. Going through the 20 entries, most of them seem doubtful participants. Take the 5/1 each-way -- a rock-solid bet assuming Mitchell allows him to take his chance.
Nikolay Davydenko seems overpriced at 6/1 to reach the final of tennis's ATP World Tour. His group -- comprising also Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Robin Soderling - is the weaker of the two.
Finally, oppose Atletico Madrid at 11/10 on Betfair to win at Apoel Nicosia in the Champions League during the week. The Spaniards are enduring a turbulent campaign and face a Cypriot side that is formidable at their home ground. They also held Atletico scoreless in Madrid.
Recommendations
The Listener to win John Durkan
1pt each way at 5/1 (Ladbrokes)
Davydenko to reach final of ATP
1pt at 6/1 (Betfair)
Lay Of The Week
Atletico Madrid to beat APOEL
1pt at 2.1 approx (1.1pt liability, Betfair)
jwardvb@gmail.com
- JOHNNY WARD
Sunday Independent
