Wayne Bailey: Dream ahead a no-brainer for dewhurst
Published 16/10/2010 | 05:00
ANYONE who studied Greek mythology will be aware of Pegasus, the divine white horse with the big set of wings.
Apparently, Pegasus is the nickname that Saeed Bin Suroor's stable staff have given Saamidd and connections will be hoping the colt can soar to legendary status by winning today's Dewhurst at Newmarket.
Godolphin clearly think he's got more to come following his Champagne Stakes victory over Approve and supplemented him for this race at a cost of £20,000. But this is one of the best Dewhurst renewals in years and it's my view that the race could turn out to be a match between Frankel and Dream Ahead.
The former has tremendous potential and showed a devastating turn of foot to demolish the field at Ascot, marking him down as one of the best juveniles we've seen this decade. That said, I just can't bring myself to back him at 4/7 when the latter horse has, officially at least, better form in the book.
Although the manner of Frankel's victories were breathtaking, the horse he beat by 10 lengths last time, Klammer, was only rated 99. Compare that with Dream Ahead, which finished nine lengths clear of the 113-rated Strong Suit in the Shadwell Middle Park Stakes.
On paper it's a no-brainer, but paper doesn't account for potential and bookmakers are clearly afraid of taking a hit on Frankel and have priced him up accordingly, thus leaving Dream Ahead as an inflated second favourite.
It could be argued that Dream Ahead may prefer softer going, but don't forget that the David Simcock-trained colt comfortably took the Prix Morny on good, so I'm willing to take a chance that he'll act on the ground here at 7/2.
It's been a while since I've had a bet involving the oval-shaped ball, but there are a couple of opportunities in this weekend's Heineken Cup that may prove fruitful. Munster will find it tough to overcome their loss to London Irish last week and have to do without their two best centres due to suspension.
Toulon are a decent side and, although their away form can be inconsistent, they should cover the handicap bet giving them an eight-point head-start at 10/11.
Leinster against Saracens will be the tie of the weekend and I feel that the 2009 winners showed enough in last week's win over a strong Racing Metro side to overcome their Pool 2 rivals and will be backing them at 11/10. Finally, it is worth taking a chance on in-form Northampton beating Edinburgh, priced around 3/4.
It's fair to say that Hazelrigg is Tim Easterby's main hope in the Catterick Bridge Totepool Catterick Dash (3.25), but don't rule out Favourite Girl, which had a spell of good form during the summer, winning four handicaps in the process. She hasn't really shone of late, but is slotted in nicely at these weights and may place at around 14/1.
2.25 Newmarket: Dream Ahead
3.0 Newmarket: Poet's Voice
3.25 Catterick: Favourite Girl
4.0 Catterick: Candys Girl