Monday 5 December 2016

Termagant worth Oaks punt

Johnny Ward

Published 16/05/2010 | 05:00

TERMAGANT may have been underestimated by the odds-compilers who have chalked her up at 25/1 to win the Investec Oaks on June 4.

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Kevin Prendergast's filly has yet to reappear this season, but is due to do so in the Irish 1,000 Guineas, a prominent showing in which will result in her price contracting for Epsom. So it is worth taking the odds now.

The daughter of Powerscourt, in racing parlance, could be anything. On her debut, she made light work of Aidan O'Brien's Cabaret at Leopardstown on quick ground. Cabaret is as short as 16/1 for the Oaks, and while she disappointed in the Musidora last week, she was sent off at 2/1 favourite and is probably better than that.

Prendergast saddled two in the Moyglare, but was in no way surprised when 16/1 shot Termagant made light of the heavy ground to win easily against Ballydoyle's Famous and Lillie Langtry. This was only her second start and illustrated how much potential the daughter of Powerscourt has.

In winning that mile Group One in such deep ground, Termagant gave every indication that she will get middle distances this year, so it will be intriguing to see how she fares in the Irish Guineas next weekend. Prendergast reports her to be in excellent form, so it will be disappointing if she does not run well.

Of her potential Oaks rivals, Rumoush is 6/1 favourite, but this Macus Tregoning-trained filly was beaten over seven lengths in the English Guineas and is far from certain to get a mile and a half.

Second favourite is Aviate, who won the Musidora, though connections were reluctant after the race to even confirm that she will go to Epsom.

Prendergast rarely sends a horse to England but when he does, he only does so when his horse has a realistic chance and Termagant's prospects of landing the Oaks are probably better than that implied by her odds.

RECOMMENDATION

Termagant to win the Oaks, 0.5pt win at 25/1 (general)

THOUGH Tipperary are 8/1 to beat Kerry in the opening game of the Munster Senior Football Championship today, there is a level of expectation that the Premier men can push the All-Ireland champions close.

It is hard to be sure what to expect of the Kingdom this year, but there is little doubting their attacking class. They should create goal chances today and the prospect of at least two green flags may render 8/11 an exploitable price.

The wide open spaces of Semple Stadium ought to be ideal for forward players and Kerry have six of them of immense class. Niall Curran will have his hands full marking Kieran Donaghy, who is flanked by Colm Cooper and Bryan Sheehan.

The game should tell us much about Kerry's hunger to retain Sam Maguire and to regain the Munster title.

RECOMMENDATION

Back over 1.5 goals in Tipperary-Kerry, 2pts 8/11 (Bet365)

INTERNAZIONALE will land the Serie A title again this afternoon if they win away at Siena, for which they are an incredibly short price.

Considering that the Milanese are not at home, it is hard to believe that most bookmakers are offering 1/10 about Jose Mourinho's men, amid rumours that the hosts will not offer much resistance. They are already relegated, but they have gotten a result in 11 of their 18 home games and should at least make it somewhat difficult for the champions elect.

Inter will not necessarily go gung-ho for a second goal if they take the lead, and it may pay to lay an outcome of more than two goals at 1/2 on Betfair. In general, this is an unusual match in betting terms, but it is very easy to envisage Inter killing the game if they take the lead.

RECOMMENDATION

Lay over 2.5 goals in Siena-Inter, 2pts at 1.5 (1pt liability, Betfair)

YEAR TO DATE

Profit to €10 stake: €186.93

Still running: €165

valuebet@independent.ie

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