Wednesday 26 July 2017

Paco looks the Boy for Moulin

Johnny Ward

PACO Boy looks overpriced at 11/10 to win today's Prix du Moulin at Longchamp.

Richard Hannon's top-class miler stands out clearly on form and profile and would be odds-on if some did not cling to the misguided belief that he struggles to get the distance.

Though his run over this trip flattened out recently at Deauville, the ground was described as "very soft" on that occasion, which would not have been ideal; today, it is forecast to be good. He still finished six lengths ahead of Fuisse that day and a form reversal seems highly improbable.

Today's second-favourite is Lope De Vega, which finished last in the Prix Jean Prat when most recently seen in June, having gotten worked up pre-race before running freely. He may have his own way up front, but clearly has questions to answer and makes little appeal at 11/4.

Siyouni, next in the betting, has finished second or worse in his four races this year and basically needs Paco Boy to underperform. Assuming that does not happen, he should win.

RECOMMENDATION

Paco Boy to win Prix du Moulin,

1pt at 11/10 (Stan James, Paddy Power) or best morning odds

LIVERPOOL look a good bet at 4/5 to top their Europa League group. The competition is for many an underwhelming sideshow to the Champions League, but that is neither here nor there if there is money to be made.

Given his exploits last year at Fulham, when he guided them all the way to the final, it seems inconceivable that Roy Hodgson will treat the competition lightly.

Napoli, Utrecht and Steaua Bucharest form the group's other three-quarters, with some firms understandably quoting 'Pool at 1/2.

RECOMMENDATION

Liverpool to win Group K of Europa League,

2.5pts at 4/5 (Coral, Totesport)

WARNING Flag might be aptly-named in the context of this afternoon's Irish Stallion Farms EBF Median Auction at Dundalk and looks worth laying at around 7/5 on Betfair.

David Wachman's son of War Front debuted at Cork recently but it is questionable what he achieved in finishing second to a Dermot Weld runner which was previously third at Galway.

Moreover, he flashed his tail wildly under pressure -- quite possibly a sign of irresolution -- and he did not shape as though dropping back a furlong and a half, as he does today, would be ideal.

Red Shaheen probably ran to a similar mark on his debut in a hot Galway contest compared to the level War Front achieved, while It's Freezing, Brecan Boy and The Reaper all have decent claims too.

Lay the jolly in the morning trading.

RECOMMENDATION

Lay Warning Flag to win at Dundalk,

1pt at 2.4 approx (1.4pt liability, Betfair)

YEAR TO DATE

Profit to €10 stake: €261.97

Still running: €110

valuebet@independent.ie

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