Saturday 24 June 2017

Notalossonya can bounce back

Johnny Ward

N OTALOSSONYA may not be aptly named after Fairyhouse's Dunshaughlin Handicap today, but there is every chance that Eddie Lynam's filly will be overpriced.

Flat cards at the home of the Irish Grand National are quite low-key affairs generally, and today's is no exception. The fields are big and punting opportunities do not jump off the page.

The forecast soft ground could also result in quite a few non-runners, but only 15 go to post in this mile-and-a-half handicap, so each-way bets may not be advisable. The advice is to put a small bet on Notalossonya at best morning odds.

Her price will be helped by the presence in the race of Park Ranger, trained by Christy Roche and generally the subject of considerable support every time he runs this summer. He was backed from 7/1 into what looked a ludicrous 2/1 at Listowel midweek but he produced a rather flattering bid and ended up out of the placings.

Notalossonya's last run at Leopardstown was disappointing but she had excuses that day and the layers may write her off.

She basically looked to be doing too much up front for much of a race in which virtually all those who fared best came from off the speed.

She faded to finish midfield but it is worth noting that the three-year-old was running from five pounds out of the handicap.

Previously at Galway, she had easily beaten Sailors Warn, a very consistent sort which subsequently hacked up in a competitive Sligo maiden.

The selection has few miles on the clock and handles an ease. She can bounce back if ridden with a little more restraint and could be about 14/1 in the morning betting.

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CORK are 4/6 on Betfair to win in 70 minutes against Down in today's All-Ireland SFC decider. The price seems a bit big but there might be better value in other markets, of which there are plenty.

The 20/1 about Paddy Kelly winning man of the match is tempting, as is the 6/5 available for those who fancy Benny Coulter to score at least three points (goals count for the purposes of the bet). Down to hit most wides at 11/8 is also of note.

However, the sporting bet that took the eye today was in a relatively low-key snooker match between Jimmy White and Paul Davison, a journeyman from Yorkshire.

Otherwise known by the rather unimaginative nickname 'The Pickering Potter', Davison will be playing in front of around 3,000 fans and many more on live TV this evening.

Davison re-established his career in the professional game after rejoining the main tour from the Pontin's International Open Series and should be able to cause a mild surprise. Moreover, the fact that the match is a best-of-five-frames means that the outsider has a better chance. Most firms go 6/5, but Sportingbet go 8/5.

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MOONLIT Garden will likely be a warm favourite for today's Tattersalls Ireland Super Auction Sale Stakes at Fairyhouse but she is worth laying at around 2/1.

Though Dermot Weld's filly has an outstanding chance in theory, she is unproven regarding both the forecast ground and trip and has a new jockey today who has never ridden her before. Kevin Manning likes to keep his mounts prominent, but it is hard to know how much she will find over this trip if the pace is strong.

There are a few rivals which could improve enough to go close and Moonlit Garden looks a vulnerable favourite. She did not find much the last day over six furlongs.

RECOMMENDATION

Lay Moonlit Garden to win at Fairyhouse, 1pt at 3 approx (2pt liability, Betfair)

YEAR TO DATE

Profit to €10 stake: €222.97

Still running: €125

valuebet@independent.ie

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