New Approach looks for sweet revenge over 'Marmalade'
Saturday September 06 2008
When New Approach crossed the line to finish third behind Duke Of Marmalade in the rearranged Juddmonte International a fortnight ago, the thought of scouting the Leopardstown betting ring today to take advantage of the inflated prices about him gaining revenge on his Ballydoyle conqueror held appeal.
Clearly, Jim Bolger's horse was overly fresh at Newmarket and pulled too hard, fighting for his head twice as badly as he had done when successful in the Epsom Derby.
Having not run for two-and-a-half months, his fate was sealed once Kevin Manning failed to switch him off, and there was simply no way that he could win a Group One against older horses having exhausted so much energy fighting his own partner.
That New Approach finished the race so well hinted at better things to come, and this afternoon's Tattersalls' Millions Irish Champion Stakes was the natural target.
But that initial enthusiasm for the rematch was founded on the premise that Duke Of Marmalade would be odds-on to confirm his superiority and that New Approach's price would consequentially be generous, but the recent rain has complicated things slightly.
Aidan O'Brien's superstar is now as big as evens -- having drifted to 3/1 -- and if there is one thing we have learned this season, it is that opposing an O'Brien horse just for the sake of it is as quick a way as any to the poorhouse.
With New Approach as low as 5/4, the question of where the best value lies is now less straightforward.
While the Derby winner is plenty short, though, the reasons for his price contracting are valid, and I still believe that he remains value for revenge here.
Crucially, and the primary cause for the volatility in the market this week, is that he will be more comfortable on the softened ground than his chief opponent.
The Galileo colt's best form is on testing ground, and he can also be expected to line out for the Group One showpiece in prime condition.
His run at Newmarket will have sharpened him up fitness-wise and, now that he has let off some steam, he is sure to settle better.
Having had a long break mid- season, it is probable that he will be operating at his absolute optimum today, whereas Duke Of Marmalade has been running at peak levels since April.
The Ballydoyle inmate is an outstanding horse and, if anyone can maintain his form, it is O'Brien.
Nonetheless, there must be a likelihood that, having competed five times at the highest level over a period of four months and the latest effort coming only 14 days ago, his edge will be somewhat less than it could be.
Along with Henrythenavigator, New Approach looks an exceptional three-year-old and, in receipt of 7lbs with everything in his favour, he is expected to follow in the footsteps of his dam Park Express, which gave Bolger his only previous win in the race back in 1986.
The other Group One on the card, the Matron Stakes, has a much trickier look to it now that the ground has turned, and may well be best swerved as a betting heat.
One that may be worth an interest at a decent price is Caribbean Sunset, an improving type that won on heavy last time.
That filly's trainer, Dermot Weld, can also take the Kilternan Stakes with Famous Name, which hasn't run since June but will love the ground and goes well fresh.
In the September Handicap, Impossible Dream can win for a third time this season. Andrew Kinsella's colt has to defy another 8lb hike in the weights, but plenty of his opponents won't handle the conditions and he didn't look stretched here last month.
Best Bet: New Approach
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