Houdini looks a National treasure
Sunday December 27 2009
OPERATION Houdini has gone up the guts of four stone in the ratings as a steeplechaser, but may still be sufficiently well-handicapped to win the Welsh Grand National tomorrow.
The only Irish-trained horse left in the marathon since the five-day declaration stage, the seven-year-old has previous form behind Notre Pere, which bolted up at Chepstow 12 months ago. When they clashed late last year at Navan, a couple of somewhat slovenly jumps at the final two flights may have cost Operation Houdini the big-race success his trainer, Davy Fitzgerald, has long insisted is within his grasp.
The son of Saddlers Hall was sent off co-favourite for this year's renewal of the Troytown, won rather effortlessly by Beroni, which was the original ante-post favourite for Chepstow. We can only speculate what might have transpired had the gelding not unseated Niall Madden five out, though he was apparently travelling well at the time and it also seemed a relatively innocuous mistake. His confidence, judging by a very gutsy hurdling success two weeks later, did not seem to suffer a blow in any event.
The main basis for suggesting that Operation Houdini can win tomorrow is that he will prove at his best over extreme trips. Moreover, this track ought to be very much a positive, with its galloping nature and demanding straight -- much unlike Leopardstown, where the horse might otherwise have run in today's feature.
The Troytown aberration may prove a blessing in the sense that he did not go up in the weights, leaving him on 10 stone and five pounds tomorrow. The horse has progressed appreciably and has won his last three completed starts, generally travelling and jumping better than he did last season.
Tomorrow's race is predictably competitive. Penalised course winner Le Beau Bai is difficult to fault and a worthy favourite, while The Tother One lacks experience for a race like this but has the form to be a real threat. Yet the feeling lingers that Operation Houdini has improved enough to be thereabouts with a clear round and he is available at 14/1.
Seán Flanagan's booking is reassuring too. He has a good record on the horse and -- given the minor quirks exhibited occasionally in his jumping technique -- that understanding is not to be dismissed. He has been rated in Ireland over trips of three miles or less, allowing some room for manoeuvre in a handicapping sense over more extreme distances. It is possible that his price will lengthen on the day too, as Notre Pere's did, but most bookmakers are guaranteeing prices nowadays.
At Limerick today, Quadrillon is a suggested lay at around the even-money mark, as Willie Mullins' gelding may run closer to his best on a stiffer track over a longer trip. This also looks reasonably competitive.
Finally, back Slovakia to qualify from their World Cup group at 7/4. Italy are nothing special, while New Zealand may struggle to pick up any points. The second spot could be between the men from the Tartars and Paraguay, but 7/4 seems long.
Recommendations
Operation Houdini to win Welsh National, 1pt e/w at 14/1 (Stan James, Bet365)
Slovakia to quality from Group F of World Cup, 1pt at 7/4 (VC)
Lay Of The Week
Quadrillon to win at Limerick, 1pt at 2 approx (1pt liability, Betfair)
jwardvb@gmail.com
- JOHNNY WARD
Sunday Independent
