Marinero looks promising for new yard
Published 28/07/2016 | 02:30
Just like people, you can't tar all horses with the one brush and having owned a leg or two in a couple of nags down through the years, I know that each have their own personalities and quirks.
As such, I don't like to generalise too much but from a betting point of view, I've found that backing horses which fell last time out is bad for business.
While it's fair to say that some horses can recover no problem, others can be seriously affected by a tumble and need a couple of confidence-boosting runs to get them back in shape.
I won't bore you with too many facts and figures but it's worth pointing out that horses in both chases and hurdles which are reasonably fancied (top four in the betting) and fell last time out are well worth opposing.
Since 2008, 3,705 such horses raced in the UK and Ireland and 17pc of them won. Had you laid each with a liability of €10 on Betfair, you'd show a profit of over €1,000 with just one losing year in that period.
Of course there are plenty of exceptions and Willie Mullins' Daisy's Gift may well make a fool out of me in the opening Guinness Dublin Porter Beginners Chase (1.50) but at 4/1 in the early markets under Ruby Walsh, I'm willing to oppose her today.
She got her hurdling career off to a good start, and wins included a Listed event at Gowran, but she looked out of sorts when second-last in her final race over hurdles at Navan in November.
Last month, she went off as the even-money favourite in a beginners' chase at Kilbeggan but she fell at the seventh, having traded at 4/9 in-running. Based on those faller figures, she's one to take on. Taglietelle will probably go off as favourite for Gordon Elliott but I'm quite keen on Henry de Bromhead's Marinero, which has a forecast price of 7/1.
A former Tony Martin horse, he's shown some useful form over both hurdles and fences without setting the world alight - but a change of scenery seems to have done some good and he won a Tipperary hurdle handy enough at 2/1 11 days ago.
In the Guinness Harp Novice Chase (2.25), Tiger Roll catches the eye although I notice he also has an entry for a race on Sunday.
Quite a smart hurdler in his day, the six-year-old was twice unbeaten over fences before tackling a novice chase at Killarney last time - but he seemed stretched by the longer trip and finished fourth. He's back down in distance today and I've stuck him in my notebook as one to follow.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the Hop House 13 Handicap (3.0) as quite a few have claims but Daredevil Day ticks the right boxes for me for Joseph Murphy and Pat Smullen (right). I'm hoping I can get at least 6/1 about the Holy Roman Emperor gelding which was narrowly beaten by Ruler Of France in a Ballinrobe handicap recently.
Rayisa has been chalked up as favourite in the early markets for the Listed Arthur Guinness EBF Corrib Fillies Stakes (3.30) and while she's usually thereabouts, she hasn't actually won a race in some time and looks short at 11/4.
Instead, a chance is taken on Mothers Finest around 3/1 for Adrian Keatley. Gary Carroll gets the ride on this promising filly which won a handicap at Newcastle in June while still trained by Karl Burke.
Bel Sas can justify the favourite tag in the Guinness Novice Hurdle (4.05) for the Willie Mullins team. A decent horse in some bumpers, the five-year-old won a maiden hurdle with the minimum of fuss at Bellewstown at the beginning of the month.
The big one is up next and no-one would begrudge Gordon Elliott a win in the Galway Hurdle (4.45). He's had six horses placed in this race in the last eight years including Cause Of Causes, which finished a head-second to Rebel Fitz in 2012.
At the time of writing, Tempo Mac is the outsider of the field around 33/1 but that's too high considering Elliott's record in the race and the six-year-old is taken each-way under jockey Luke Dempsey.
He won a competitive handicap hurdle at Punchestown in April, and has been keeping busy with a couple of good races on the Flat since. Of the fancied runners, Superb Story should go well for Dan Skelton around 4/1 having won a handicap hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
In the following Flat handicap (5.25), Greanta gets the nod around 12/1 for Thomas and Rory Cleary. She went close off this mark at Killarney last month, although this is one of today's most tricky races.
Finally, Dorans River is tipped to take the bumper (6.0) under Nina Carberry following a decent effort when fourth in a similar race at Kilbeggan.
2.25: Tiger Roll
3.0: Daredevil Day
3.30: Mothers Finest
4.05: Bel Sas (Nap)
4.45: Tempo Mac (e/w)
6.0: Dorans River