Dascombe filly can lay down the Law with Haydock victory
Published 08/08/2015 | 02:30
It's been an interesting couple of weeks on the betting front with Galway and Goodwood now behind us. Like most punters I've spoken to, I found Galway tough enough and that's borne out in the stats, with just 31pc of favourites winning compared to 44pc last year.
The high of the week was Powersbomb (12/1) on the Wednesday, which I'd backed at 18/1 on Betfair, but highs and lows come quick and fast in this game and Ted Veale (16/1) let me down when third to stablemate Quick Jack in the Galway Hurdle a day later.
Saturday was kind to me, with Magical Memory (6/1) and Legatissimo (2/1) coming up trumps at Goodwood (tipped here) but as soon as the missus got wind of that success, she had a babysitter and a night out organised before you could say "Fermanagh won't score a goal against Dublin on Sunday".
Of course, Fermanagh did score a goal against Dublin on Sunday, which left me back out of pocket once again. This betting lark was never an easy game, but I'm starting to miss the pre-social media days when you could keep your bets, both good and bad, to yourself!
Officially, Ascot's Shergar Cup is the big event of the day but a card made up of six handicaps makes little appeal betting-wise. The idea is to have jockeys from different countries battle it out in teams against each other but as much as I've tried, I can't to warm to it and I haven't found anything I can back with confidence.
Once horse I do have confidence in is Intilaaq in the Group Three Rose of Lancaster Stakes (2.55 Haydock), although at odds of 1/2 or thereabouts, readers would hardly be impressed if I put him up as a selection.
Generally, backing odds-on shots doesn't bother me - I mostly agree with the late great Peter O'Sullevan who said: "Punters who impose restrictions on themselves - never betting odds-on, for example - act against their own interest. The only limitation should be never bet beyond capacity to pay."
In this case, though, the potential return isn't worth the risk and I'll sit this out.
Roger Varian's colt is forgiven for a disappointing run in the Guineas as he was tired having raced two weeks earlier, but he looked a real star in the making when taking a Listed race at Newbury last month.
With 3lbs in hand on official ratings plus an allowance as the only three-year-old in the field, it's very hard to see him getting beaten today, but he's priced accordingly.
Elsewhere, a chance is taken on three-time runner-up Crowley's Law in the Listed Dick Hern Fillies' Stakes (3.25 Haydock), which was chalked up at 15/2 in the early markets yesterday.
Tom Dascombe's charge was beaten by Arabian Queen in the Princess Elizabeth Stakes at Epsom, and once again finished second in a Listed race in Cologne. But this looks wide open and I reckon there's a good chance we'll see her back in the winner's enclosure today for the first time in over a year.
In the Group Three Sweet Solera Stakes (3.35 Newmarket), Blue Bayou is tipped to get the better of Fireglow at around 2/1 for Brian Meehan. She was out of her depth in a Group Two last time but she's one that will progress and has a number of big-race entries for the season.
Expected to go off around 33/1, Lunar Deity is one of the outsiders for the German Bloodstock Sales Handicap at Newmarket (3.05) but those odds look decent enough considering the handicapper has dropped him 4lb since his latest race in which he never settled.
2.20 Haydock: Green Light (e/w)
3.05 Newmarket: Lunar Deity (e/w)
3.25 Haydock: Crowley's Law
3.35 Newmarket: Blue Bayou
4.10 Newmarket: Figment