Comply can show up Cloudy market
Voy Por Ustedes (Robert Thornton) jumps the last fence on the way to winning the Melling Chase at Aintree yesterday
Saturday April 05 2008
In the build-up to the event itself, the 2008 Aintree Grand National is already notable for the bookies' pricing of the favourite, Cloudy Lane. As low as 9/2 in places, there has been talk of him going off the shortest priced jolly in over 30 years.
Some believe that, owing to a perceived lack of a worthy opponent, he could go off as short as 7/2, which is the price Red Rum started in 1975.
However, Red Rum had already won two Nationals at that point, and the extent of the bookies' parsimony is highlighted by the fact that even the old National specialist was unable to justify such a short price, instead finishing second to L'Escargot. Cloudy Lane has not so much as jumped a Grand National fence yet, and backing him at anything less than 6/1 cannot be justified.
What's more, when the real bookies start trading on the race today 'on course,' I find it hard to believe that Cloudy Lane won't be available at around 6/1. At that price, you could justifiably back him each-way. Donald McCain's horse has the right profile for the race in that, as an eight-year-old, he has plenty experience, he carries less than 11 stone, is in form and has a top rider on board.
Reason
His being theoretically 20lbs well in -- which is the main reason the bookies' are so afraid to lay him -- is neither here nor there. That is simply one man's view -- the handicapper's -- and there has been evidence of late to suggest that he may have overreacted in putting the horse's future mark up to 161.
Bewleys Berry and Butler's Cabin are two others to consider. It's hard to put a finger on why Bewleys Berry ran so poorly at Haydock last time, but he loves the National course, and that is a priceless attribute. He has twice been placed over the fences and, although he tipped up in last year's race, the 10-year-old showed no ill effects when second to Mr Pointment in the Becher last November.
Butler's Cabin is a different proposition in that he has yet to experience the course. However, as a winner of the four-miler at Cheltenham and an Irish National, we know he stays well. Both are available at 16/1 or so, and represent a bit of value.
Leading the Irish challenge is Slim Pickings, last year's third. Like Butler's Cabin, Tom Taaffe's horse has enough to carry with 11st 3lbs on his back. Nonetheless, he has been trained for this, and those with low 11-stone weights have a better chance than normal this year, owing to the handicap being more compressed than in the past.
Taken to trump them all, though, is the David Pipe-trained Comply Or Die. Pipe's horses have been in tremendous form all season, none more so than this nine-year-old. A good novice a couple of years ago, Comply Or Die returned to his old self with the application of blinkers behind Cloudy Lane in the Tommy Whittle in December. He then hacked up in the Eider in February, and has been kept for this since.
If the weights are as important as the bookies believe them to be, it should be noted that Comply Or Die is now 4lbs better off with Cloudy Lane for a two-and-a-half length beating. Judging by his eight-length win off a 4lb higher mark in the Eider, it is reasonable to believe that, despite his age of nine, he has progressed more than 4lbs.
Two things that may be cause for worry are whether or not he will have the early pace, and that he wears blinkers. But neither are enough to put me off him. In Timmy Murphy, Comply Or Die has one of the best National jockeys around and, while many blinkered horses do not fare well in the race, it is only 10 years since Earth Summit sported them to victory.
Moreover, Murphy produced a masterclass to finish second on the blinkered Smarty in the 2001 National. If Comply Or Die takes to the fences and if Murphy can keep him in touch early on, the rider could go one better today.
Prediction:
1 Comply Or Die
2 Bewleys Berry
3 Slim Pickings
4 Cloudy Lane
5 Butler's Cabin
- Expert View
