Celestial Halo heavenly priced for Champion Hurdle assault
Sunday November 08 2009
CELESTIAL HALO seems too big a price to ignore to win the Champion Hurdle next March at Cheltenham.
Paul Nicholls' five-year-old, most unusually for one of his inmates, has been disrespected by the oddsmakers. Yet he should be able to improve as a hurdler and this, allied to his distinct affinity for Cheltenham, arguably makes him the most solid gambling proposition in the race at 10/1.
Starting at the top of the betting, Hurricane Fly is perhaps the most falsely-priced favourite in the chief Cheltenham markets. Quite what relevance beating the likes of Kempes and Go Native in slowly-run soft-ground Irish races has with regard to the Champion Hurdle is questionable. Much unlike Celestial Halo, speed rather than stamina defines his jumping prowess and on a form basis, 3/1 is a silly price.
Binocular is 4/1, even though he was behind Celestial Halo in last season's renewal. Nicky Henderson's five-year-old laughed at Celestial Halo earlier in the campaign but that was at Ascot, and the running of the Champion Hurdle last March paid more tribute to the Nicholls' horse than Binocular.
Today's Navan runner, Osana, set a searing pace that gave him no chance of winning -- yet Celestial Halo was never far off him; these would not be Ruby Walsh's habitual tactics, but the horse stays further. However, the sectional times suggest that such proximity to a gallop of this ferocity cannot really have suited Celestial Halo. In other words, he probably would have won if ridden with more restraint.
As it was, he went down by a neck to Punjabi, rallying gustily all the way up the hill. Meanwhile, Binocular -- which had a far more favourable pitch throughout the race -- gave way, a head back in third. The price difference between these two seems irrational.
Charles Byrnes' Solwhit edged Punjabi on soft ground at Punchestown and is certainly not a forlorn pick for the race, although single-figure odds seem about right. He has no experience of Prestbury Park, whereas Celestial Halo won the Triumph Hurdle there and excelled himself last March.
Clearly, Ruby Walsh at this point is more likely to partner Hurricane Fly come Cheltenham, but much can happen between now and then.
It seems like an opportune time to back him at 10/1 (a quarter of the odds the first three to place), after his classy win off top weight at Wincanton yesterday.
Catch Me, nowadays Osana's stablemate, was easily the best hurdler among today's sextet in Navan's novices' chase. However, Copsiano looks a very classy recruit to fences, while Oscar Looby and Caim Hill also have prospects. He can be opposed at 4/5 on his second chase outing.
Meanwhile, Kerry, as short as 9/4, are 10/3 to win the NFL Division 1 with Boylesports. The reigning champions must have a great chance of reaching the final, given Tyrone's generally underwhelming form in recent NFL campaigns and the gulf in quality that separates them from everyone else bar Cork.
Recommendations
Celestial Halo to win Champion Hurdle, 1pt each way at 10/1 (Hills)
Kerry to win NFL Div 1, 1pt at 10/3 (Boylesports)
Lay Of The Week
Catch Me to win at Navan, 1pt at 1.8 approx (0.8pt liability, Betfair)
jwardvb@gmail.com
- JOHNNY WARD
Sunday Independent
