Rory McIlroy needs to deliver the performance of his young golfing life if victory in the inaugural Race to Dubai is to be secured on the Earth Course today. A stumbling finish to a third-round 69 yesterday left him with no other option after his chief rival, Lee Westwood, retained the lead through a hugely impressive 66.

In the process, the gap between Westwood and McIlroy was extended to five strokes and the Englishman's closest challenger for the actual €5m Dubai World Championship is now his compatriot, Ross McGowan. There is the prospect of a two-pronged Irish assault on Westwood, however, given Padraig Harrington's share of third place on 10 under par.

Bogeys at the 16th, where he was fortunate not to finish in water, at the 17th, which he three-putted, and on the last, where he hit a short-iron third into a stream beside the green, rocked McIlroy. Within minutes, however, he was defiantly promising a finale to match his 63 in Shanghai on November 8 and his 64 in Hong Kong last Sunday.

"Those scores prove I'm capable of delivering on the final day," he said. "If I can do it again, I'll have a good chance to win." Which would mean surpassing the course-record 65 set by Robert Allenby on the opening day.

There is also the matter of how Westwood responds to the pressure, given the recent memory of his final-hole collapse in the Open at Turnberry. With a tournament winner's cheque for €830,675 at stake, along with a bonus of €1.01m as the leading money-winner, strange things may happen on what has already been established as a very dangerous finishing stretch. As McIlroy acknowledged, it's "a massive amount of money".

Westwood has always been an exemplary iron player and his putter delivered a particularly rich dividend. "I hardly missed anything all day and I know I'm playing well enough to win," was his candid verdict. Among his 28 putts for the round were splendid efforts for a run of birdies on the ninth, 10th and 11th.

With birdies on the 14th (five-foot putt) and 15th (25-footer), however, McIlroy was actually tied for the lead, making his subsequent errors all the more painful.

Typically resourceful, Harrington squeezed a highly creditable 69 out of pretty indifferent approach play that cost him a shot on the treacherous 16th. But he finished with a beautifully executed birdie on the last, where he had carded a wretched seven on Friday.

"It's great that the Tour's number one title has come down to the last round of the season," said the Dubliner, who is seeking his first victory since the PGA Championship 15 months ago. "That's what you would always want. We have a scenario in which two guys, Lee and Rory, are still in with a chance of winning."

In the wake of David Howell's sweeping victory in the BMW/PGA Championship at Wentworth in late May 2006, McIlroy made an assessment way beyond his tender 17 years. "Watching David, I was really struck by how much he was in control of himself and his game," he said with remarkable maturity. "He looked so comfortable compared to those around him."

Then McIlroy added: "You don't have to be an amazing ball-striker to win on the professional tour. Being consistent week in and week out is the key. It brought home to me the importance of keeping stupid mistakes off my card, like the ones I had in the Desert Classic in Dubai earlier this year (2006), when I had two 72s and missed the cut by a stroke."

Almost 16 months before turning professional, McIlroy already knew what he would have to do to make it to the top. It's an approach which has characterised his journey in pursuit of the money-leader's award, with one tournament victory and 10 top-five finishes, starting with a share of third place in the South African Open last December.

In an intriguing reversal of fortune, his one-time role-model, Howell, is in an observer's role in Dubai this weekend as a pundit for Sky Sports. When the tournament arrived at the halfway stage with his long-time colleague Westwood in a two-stroke lead, Howell found himself talking publicly about the youngster who had so much admired that Wentworth triumph of three and a half years ago. "Rory may not have the experience of Lee, but he's a brilliant golfer," said Howell.

McIlroy, meanwhile, was thinking about consistency. "That's what the The Race to Dubai is about," he said on the eve of battle. "When I led the list after the Dunhill Links, I think I had earned just over €2m and I thought to myself I'd probably need to reach about €3m to win. And it looks as if I'll need a very good finish to complete the job. I'm still thinking about winning the tournament and if I can do that, then everything else will take care of itself."

This would make him the youngest winner of the money list since Seve Ballesteros did it as a 19-year-old in 1976 when he captivated the golfing world by sharing second place in the Open Championship with Jack Nicklaus behind Johnny Miller at Royal Birkdale.

Against this background, the answer was almost predictable when the Holywood star was asked whether he would like to be remembered for playing the game like Nick Faldo, or the Ballesteros way. "I think Seve had a lot more fans than Nick did," he replied with an innocent grin. "Seve was the catalyst for the growth in European golf. He was the man."

Meanwhile, as a reflection of these straitened times, the course couldn't be more appropriate, given that it is surrounded by half-finished properties, casualties of the economic downturn. Work on the clubhouse stopped last May, leaving it an empty shell, and the drive in to the course presents such a dismal, cash-strapped image that one experienced observer was moved to comment wryly: "Magnolia Lane it ain't."

There was also the problem of a distinct stench from the pond on the short sixth. Fortunately for the organisers, smells are not transmitted on television and through some cleverly sympathetic camera work, the structural shortcomings of the venue have remained largely out of sight. The course itself has responded admirably to the challenge of Europe's elite, especially the back-nine.

"I made a conscious effort to make the last four holes exactly one mile, which you will see from the scorecard," said course designer Greg Norman. As a consequence, the stretch has already become known as Norman's Mile.

But despite his third-round problems, McIlroy has no complaints. "I think it sets up great for me," he said. "It's long and wide off the tee. I can take out the driver and give it a rip. The fairway bunkers are quite generous and there's a lot of mid-irons into the greens, which I think is the strongest part of my game."

With a lead of €128,000 at the outset, the task he faced was simple but by no means easy, as Westwood's playing partner last Thursday. Win or finish ahead of Westwood and he would become King of Europe. And regardless of how he played, he would also lead the money list if Westwood were to finish outside the top seven, Martin Kaymer outside the top four and Ross Fisher outside the top two.

Westwood will become Europe Number One should he win. And he can also take the title by finishing second, provided McIlroy finishes third or worse. The dream scenario from a European Tour perspective was that all four would have a chance on Sunday. As chief executive, George O'Grady, put it: "I hope The Race (to Dubai) comes down virtually to the last putt on Sunday afternoon."

With Kaymer in 24th place and Fisher 39th at the halfway stage, however, this prospect was fading fast. And it effectively disappeared when both shared 36th place after 54 holes.

At the beginning of 2003, 13-year-old McIlroy was playing off two handicap. By October of that year's however, he went to the Darren Clarke Foundation in Portmarnock playing off plus-one, having won the Hollywood president's prize in July. Facing a chilling north-easterly, McIlroy stood on the tee of the short seventh at Portmarnock.

"OK Rory, show me what you got," exhorted Clarke. The youngster responded by hitting a glorious seven-iron to 10 feet. Today in Dubai, he will be asked as a 20-year-old to show the golfing world what he's got. The response should be fascinating.

Sunday Independent