It boils down to Kerry bettering Mayo's result against Cork
Published 27/03/2013 | 05:36
Somewhat bizarrely, perhaps, Kerry are still in with a chance of making the League semi-finals. Mathematically, at least, the perfect set of results in round seven - along with a huge win for Kerry against Tyrone - could potentially push Kerry into fourth place in the division one standings and into a league semi-final.
Of course, this is hardly going to happen, and Kerry will be quite satisfied at this stage to avoid a place in the bottom two of the division and relegation to division two.
In its simplest form, what Kerry needs to do to avoid relegation is to better Mayo's result on the last day.
Mayo's win last weekend against Donegal was a terrible result for Kerry, who now need to better Mayo's result on April 7.
With both teams on four points - from two wins - Kerry need to beat Tyrone and hope that Mayo lose to or draw with Cork; or if Kerry manage a draw with Tyrone they will need Mayo to lose dowjn in Cork.
The criteria for separating teams in the league is scoring difference if three or more teams are on the same points, while the head-to-head result from the counties' meeting will apply if only two counties need to be separated.
Mayo, of course, have beaten Kerry in their opening round meeting, therefore the Connacht county hold the advantage there.
Mayo, Kerry and Donegal (who play Dublin) could all end up on four points (if all three lose) or finish on six points (iff all three win) but either way Kerry's poor scoring difference will send down down to division two.
Currently, Kerry's scoring difference is -20, with Mayo on +2 and Donegal having a scoring difference of zero.
Down, who host Kildare in round 7, are not mathematically relegated but it would take an improbably set of results, with huge winning and losing margins to save James McCartan's team.
Dublin, Tyrone and Kildare have already qualified for the semi-finals, and the fourt spot is most likely to come from the winner of the Cork versus Mayo game.
From Kerry's point of view, all they can do is beat Tyrone in Omagh and hope Cork can stop Mayo from winning in Cork.