Global warming has us on thin ice
Monday October 05 2009
If global warming is occurring then sea-surface temperature should also be increasing, hurricane frequency should be on the rise, and polar sea ice should be melting.
Figures show that the trends for all three processes seem to be consistent for at least the short term.
Sea-surface temperature in the Gulf of Alaska has increased about 3pc over the past 30 years. Hurricane frequency in the western Atlantic appears to have increased about 3pc over the past 150 years. And the Arctic sea-ice extent has decreased about 5pc over the past 25 years.
Worldwide, glaciers and ice fields have been shrinking and receding for at least the last century. The collapse of the 1250sq mile Antarctic Larsen B ice shelf in 2002 was just one of the more spectacular instances of a phenomenon that is likely to become more frequent in a warmer world.
Melting of the Antarctic ice sheet is an event long predicted by scientists as an indication of a warming atmosphere.
Through the study of ancient ice cores from Antarctica it is possible to compare atmospheric concentrations of the dominant greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide, in the atmosphere with temperature variations over the past 400,000 years of the Earth's history.
Neil Foster claims that temperatures are cooler when they are not. In fact, the warmest 10 years on record have all occurred in the last 13 years.
As for it getting wetter, this is actually a sign of global warming: if the atmosphere is hotter there is more evaporation of the oceans. This means there are more clouds. When conditions trigger the rain it all falls at once; this has given rise to many of the flash floods we have seen over the summer.
On polar bears, Mr Foster seems to be confused. Polar bears can swim, but not hundreds of miles looking for ice they won't find. Within the next few years the Arctic will be ice-free in summer, the time when polar bears need the ice.
Mr Foster's claim that computer models are inaccurate and are not based on facts is an accusation of scientific fraud against thousands of scientists who study global warming. Computer models are the most accurate means of predicting the course of climate change.
I am a young student who sees nothing but a bleak future for our planet unless attitudes like those of Mr Foster change rapidly.
To deny global warming is to deny scientific fact. Global warming is happening, and at an unprecedented rate.
If the temperature of the earth rises above 2.4C we lose control of the situation and global warming will no longer singularly be anthropogenic but will also drive itself forward.
We must learn to trust our scientists and do something to counteract global warming while we still have time.
But hurry up, because we're already skating on very thin ice.
Seamus O'Hanlon
Tarbert, co kerry
Irish Independent
