Cowen must be wary of Lisbon
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Sunday August 31 2008
Brian Cowen's government needs to tread warily as it tries to negotiate a path around Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty.
While our latest opinion poll shows a marked shift away from the No camp, and an almost equal rise in the number of uncommitted voters, confusion -- one of the hallmarks of the June vote -- is alive and well.
Mr Cowen knows that any decision to call a second referendum will be fraught with political danger, no matter how many opt-outs or concessions he manages to extract from our European colleagues. Were he to lose again, his position as Taoiseach would be untenable.
The Nice Treaty referendums, of course, provide precedent for a second vote on Lisbon, but that does not mean that the Irish people will respond well if asked to vote again. Ireland, it is always important to remember, is the only country within the European Union that asked its people to decide on Lisbon. Ratification across the rest of the EU has been the responsibility of individual parliaments, and it goes without saying that our own Dail would have approved the treaty by a massive majority if it had been given the option. That does not show that the people were wrong. Rather, it prompts a more troubling question. Why, across Europe, have the political classes become so disengaged from the citizens they represent?
Opinion polls show that a very large number of Europeans would have rejected Lisbon, if given an opportunity to do so. A number of states, too, would have had majorities opposed to the treaty, yet none of those views were represented in the parliaments that ratified the treaty.
The fears of ordinary people were dismissed as irrelevant or as misinformed by the very people who are meant to represent them. In Ireland, the gap between citizen and politician on Europe is worryingly wide. Every major political party in this state enthusiastically endorsed Lisbon, and Mr Cowen went so far as to threaten expulsion from his party for any member who dared to speak against it.
Now, members of those political parties wonder aloud if the people's vote can be ignored. Gay Mitchell, one of our more excitable MEPs, goes so far as to question the validity of Irish democracy, saying in effect that the people cannot be trusted. In his world, it would seem, only members of this new political elite can be trusted to make serious decisions.
This is dangerous nonsense, and it feeds precisely those fears that caused many people to turn their backs on Lisbon. Democracy matters in Ireland, and we are lucky that we have a constitution that guards it jealously. Many of those who opposed Lisbon did so because, in part, they feared that its provisions would dilute democratic accountability in Europe and would take power further away from the people.
By their reaction to the treaty's defeat many of Europe's leaders have simply confirmed those fears. In seeking to press ahead with ratification anyway, they have risked a situation where Ireland would be isolated by its democratic decision.
The pressure, from the very first moment that defeat became a certainty, has been for Ireland to change while Europe remains unbending. It is simply wrong that Irish democracy should be treated with such disdain, and Mr Cowen must be exceedingly careful that he is not seen to tolerate or encourage it. The people have spoken, and they have spoken clearly. Europe's leaders should take time to reflect on what has been said, and they should look at the many reasons why Lisbon was rejected in the only country where a vote was held. Ireland did not turn its back on Europe, it rejected a poorly constructed treaty. It had better be improved before Mr Cowen thinks about asking for a second vote, because otherwise he risks making it his last vote.
