New political era beckons
Related Articles
THE results of the European and local polls and of the two Dublin by-elections have changed the very nature of Irish party politics, perhaps for decades to come.
All parties will now have to come to terms with a new world in which Fine Gael, for the first time ever, is the largest party, and in which Fianna Fail, again for the first time ever, lingers far below.
Fianna Fail may say, and does say, that it remains in office and could recover by the time of the general election in 2012. This is false optimism. Even if its coalition with the Greens can last until 2012, all the omens say that it will be next to impossible for the party to win then. And in any case, its chances of staying in office for even another 12 months are doubtful.
Can any government survive long after suffering the sweeping losses inflicted on it by an angry electorate on this occasion? If not, what is the best outcome for the country? Before attempting an answer, it is well to look at the election returns.
The scale of the Fianna Fail defeat indicates a constantly worsening, and potentially lethal, loss of confidence. In particular, voters have no faith in the Government's handling of the financial and economic crisis, and they do not believe the implausible assertion that the causes of the crisis were international and not domestic.
Fianna Fail's Green coalition partners have been all but wiped out. Their former supporters have shown pointedly how little they approve of the alliance.
The Green leaders have responded by repeating their call during the election campaign for a revision of the Programme for Government. This is a dangerous line to take. The Greens are right about the environmental need, and financial prospects, for renewable energy, but this is a long-term project, not a panacea in a time of crisis.
Still more dangerous are the panicky complaints by Fianna Fail backbenchers about unpopular measures. The worst thing the Government could do is reverse them and show weakness. The second worst thing is for ministers to boast of their machismo, trumpeting that they are unpopular because they had the courage to impose tough measures. This impresses nobody.
They would do better to accept the new facts of life. Fine Gael have triumphed -- and Enda Kenny's much-criticised leadership has been vindicated. Labour has done well, but Fine Gael is now the dominant party.
Happily, the shifts in voting patterns have taken place overwhelmingly within the mainstream parties. For the moment, we face only minor threats from the undemocratic fringes. However, that may not remain the case if the economy continues to deteriorate and if we do not enjoy stable government.
And Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his ministers face a hideously difficult six months, with a timetable which includes the second Lisbon referendum and another harsh Budget.
If they cannot attain credibility and confidence -- in the first place, confidence among themselves -- the situation may appear to dictate the formation of a national government. However, the chances of agreement among three parties are effectively non-existent. The best course of action therefore would be a general election and the accession of a Fine Gael-Labour coalition.
But this raises two closely related problems. Eamon Gilmore insists on his party's independence and says he will enter into no pre-election alliance. Secondly, there is a stark conflict between Fine Gael and Labour economic policies. To make matters worse, in both cases these policies are barely comprehensible to the public.
This state of affairs must be rectified. The parties should not only fight the next general election on joint policies, but should set about agreeing them without delay.
Far more important than the details is understanding of the priorities. The public finances must be repaired. The banks must be cleaned up. In both cases the pain will be enormous, but that cannot be avoided. Labour must accept that any more tax rises will depress the economy further, and agree to sharp public spending cuts.
And we must urgently find ways to stimulate the economy and benefit from the recovery when it comes. An unemployment rate of 400,000 is appalling: to contemplate a rise to 500,000 is even worse. Merely to begin the climb back, we need a government of authority and competence. The voters have delivered an adverse verdict on competence, and the Government's authority is in extreme peril.
