Wednesday 7 December 2016

Brexit and the Ireland question

Published 01/05/2016 | 02:30

David Cameron. Photo: Reuters
David Cameron. Photo: Reuters

In less than two months, the people of the UK will decide by referendum on whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union in what Prime Minister David Cameron has said will be the vote to settle the European question in British politics. As one of the UK's closest trading partners, the impact of Brexit on Ireland could be substantial. It has been estimated that in a worst-case scenario Ireland could see a permanent loss of 3.1pc to GDP in 2030 and even in the best-case scenario the loss would still total 1.1pc GDP.

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These potential developments are unlikely to weigh too heavily on the minds of those in the UK determined to leave the EU, but the sizeable Irish community there will be mindful of the impact here. Citizens from the Republic living in Britain are allowed to vote in June's referendum - the only EU country other than Commonwealth nations Malta and Cyprus granted this, and experts have said that their impact could win the fight for the Remain campaign. A recent online poll of nearly 25,000 Irish people revealed the country overwhelmingly supports Britain remaining in the EU. In such a tight race, hundreds of thousands of Irish immigrants could decide the referendum and Remain campaign groups are now trying to mobilise this demographic as polling day approaches.

The impact of Brexit on Ireland is so large due to the significant amount of Anglo-Irish trade. While the importance of UK trade to Ireland has fallen, Ireland still exports 16pc of its manufactured goods and 19pc of services to the UK. It currently imports 34pc of its goods from the UK and 18pc of its services. As a small, open economy, trade in goods is equivalent to almost 80pc of Irish GDP. Any barriers which disrupt that trade will involve significant costs.

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