A visit full of eastern promise
CHINESE leaders think in the long term. Zhou Enlai, one of the country's greatest figures of the 20th Century, according to legend was once asked how he assessed the significance of the French Revolution (1789). He replied: "It's too soon to say."
Xi Pinjing, that most welcome visitor to Ireland over the past three days, resembles Zhou in many important respects.
He may not see the better part of two centuries as the twinkling of an eye, but we can rest assured that he thinks in terms of decades.
And that suggests that his interest in Ireland is part of a strategy to be implemented if, as expected, he soon ascends to the supreme leadership of his country.
Now aged 58, he almost certainly looks forward to ruling China for a decade, perhaps a good deal longer. By now, he will have considered every aspect of this gigantic task.
How can anyone govern a country of 1.3 billion people, which has made breathtaking progress in recent years but still wrestles with problems that make those of Europe seem tiny?
One of these problems is food security.
A country with a backward agricultural sector must not only keep 1.3 billion people alive, but take into account that better living standards have brought with them a demand for more and more meat and dairy products.
In the past few days, the far-sighted Mr Xi has looked at two farms -- one in the United States, one here. The American farm is 20 times the size of the Clare one. In all probability, the Clare farm is much more efficient. It is also the beneficiary of a recent transformation in Irish agriculture.
Irish farming did not thrive in the first decade of this century. The future looked bleak. Cattle and sheep numbers fell sharply -- and so, distressingly, did the number of people employed.
But world shortages, and consequent price rises, have changed everything. Milk prices have risen by 50pc. Beef and lamb prices are up 30pc. The prices of some cereals have doubled.
And Irish agriculture and agribusiness are well placed to take advantage of high demand and high prices.
At the same time, the world's biggest market wants to buy from us. A perfect fit.
This is one advantage that we can seize in the short term. There are, however, many areas in which we can develop our trade relationship with China, to the benefit of both countries, in the medium and long term.
Yesterday in Dublin Castle, the representatives of the two governments signed no less than four trade agreements, which will make it easier to sell Irish goods and services to China.
The opportunities are enormous, but they must be handled skilfully. Our exporters must plan for a steady and reliable source of profit, not for a quick buck.
We must also remember that this is not a one-way street.
The precedents are there.
More than 140 Irish companies have a presence in China. They employ many thousands of workers.
That, of course, means that for sections of the business community China is already familiar territory.
Other Irish companies have studied the market, have visited the country and are ready to move. The new trade agreements will encourage them.
Since China is in some ways still underdeveloped, there are opportunities in services and high technology.
On this point, however, we must look to our own deficiencies.
Recent figures showed that multinational companies here have found difficulty in getting the graduates they need. This is disturbing.
There is another respect in which our new relationship with Beijing, and with Mr Xi personally, is not a one-way street.
Does he view Ireland as a Chinese foothold in Europe?
Very probably; but economic, not strategic like the Chinese interest in the Middle East.
It will not change fundamental facts of long standing. For all our economic woes, we want to stay in Europe. We will not abandon our traditional close links with the United States.
But we will watch Mr Xi's progress with friendly interest.
Is he another Zhou Enlai?
If so, nothing could be better for China. Or the world.
Irish Independent
