Saturday 10 December 2016

Adrian Kavanagh: Labour is facing a 'perfect storm' at coming election

Adrian Kavanagh

Published 10/10/2015 | 02:30

Joan Burton
Joan Burton

Although there has been an improvement in its figures recently, the Labour Party has tended to fall below the 10pc level in most opinion polls.

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Labour's seat level estimates in most of the poll analyses I have carried out in the past few years have been quite stark, highlighting the fact that our PR-STV electoral system is proportional, but only to a limited extent.

The further Labour's support nationally falls below 10pc, the more problems it will face in terms of winning seats as this would leave it facing a 'perfect storm' from the combined effects of boundary changes, electoral geography and changing political competition patterns.

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