John Drennan: Enda and Eamon should not get too cosy
No coalition is unsinkable -- especially if one of the partners feels Sinn Fein's breath on its neck, says John Drennan
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THE two coalition partners may be manoeuvring aro-und each other with all the caution of a Los Angeles lawyer negotiating the pre-nuptial agreement between his daughter and Charlie Sheen, but those at the top table at the wedding party are grinning over the happy ending they believe they have secured.
It is clear a Fine Gael party that really only lost its bearings when it had to deal with the possibility of an overall majority was a safety-first crew who had no intention of going it alone. Even so, there could still be ructions on the Dail dance floor. Ironically, the greatest danger this potential government of all self-proclaimed talents may face comes from their own backbenchers. It is unlikely all those new Labour TDs will respond happily to the spectacle of Sinn Fein and the United Left Alliance nibbling at their moral political posteriors, or to the inevitable praying mantis-style relationship that will evolve between the competing Fine Gael and Labour tails.
The mood of Fine Gael's 'socialist' friends will not have been improved by last week's Wright Report. Labour is keenly aware that when it comes to Gilmore's great escape, it was the public sector vote wot done it. However, one of the key revelations of the Wright Report is the role the collusion of the trade union beards with Bertie played in the break-up of the country.
If they are to really reform the State, Labour may have to jettison some bad company. In fairness to Gilmore, and Kenny too, erasing bad habits is a difficult process. Sadly though, the scale of their majority means that at a time where political virtue is needed more than ever, it may be more difficult than normal, for one enduring feature of all governments with large majorities is an undisciplined rump.
While backbench rebellions, such as those which became all too common in the Cowen administration, rarely bring administrations down directly, they have an enervating effect that erodes the capacity to act bravely and decisively.
Fine Gael may yet regret its decision to ignore the pleas for "business" from Michael Healy Rae, Shane Ross, Michael Lowry, Stephen Donnelly, Luke 'Ming' Flanagan, Noel Grealish and Finian McGrath. Ironically, as we shall see later on, the independents will have their own regrets.
Fianna Fail, meanwhile, is simply relieved Fine Gael did not take a punt on the patriotic instincts of the Soldiers of Destiny. The spectacle of a single-party Fine Gael government depending on Fianna Fail support did raise images of sleeping with scorpions, but the last thing the shattered Fianna Fail TDs want is to be smiling weakly at an enraged electorate in six months time saying "vote for the party that brought a reforming Fine Gael government down".
Their post-election state is best summarised by the wails of the unhappy narrator in Flann O'Brien's An Beal Bocht about a rather different hangover where "Misadventure fell upon my misfortune, a further misadventure fell upon that misadventure and before long the misadventures were falling thickly upon the first misfortune and then myself".
It is hard, however, to feel any sympathy for a party which still has to learn that if you destroy a country you cannot cynically change the label of your product and hope everyone will forget.
They may be banking on a backlash against the new coalition, but when it comes to the toxic Fianna Fail brand, each day of occupation by the IMF/EU Axis of Bankers will simply remind the voters of the spectres the Soldiers of Destiny's casual indifference in government raised.
That is not the end of Mr Martin's travails either, for like the post-1918 British Liberals, Ireland's natural party of government is financially challenged and morally and intellectually bankrupt. Fianna Fail has 20 TDs but half consist of dynastic heirs such as Barry Cowen, no-marks like Brendan Smith and Seamus Kirk and hapless gorsoons such as the little fella from Donegal with the unpronounceable name.
Cork's 'sly fox' will still have John McGuinness, Billy Kelleher, Michael McGrath, Dara Calleary, Niall Collins and Sean Fleming, but such a thin spread of talent will not be much more credible than a Sinn Fein frontbench incorporating figures such as Pearse Doherty, Mary Lou and Peadar Tobin.
Ultimately, while Fine Gael and Labour appear to be the most immediate winners of the great political power game, in the long run, Sinn Fein may be the best positioned.
It will be casting lascivious eyes at the disparate series of seats won by the independents and the United Left Alliance. If we are to have five years of independent impotence, while an increasingly unloved Fine Gael and Labour Coalition rules the roost, Sinn Fein will be targeting independent seats in Roscommon South Leitrim and Kerry South.
It will have ambitions in Cavan Monaghan (Kathyrn Reilly), Cork South Central, Wicklow (John Brady), Dublin Mid West (Eoin O Broin), Cork South Central, Carlow Kilkenny, Dublin North East, Dublin West, Wexford, Waterford, Meath East and Longford Westmeath.
Slowly, and particularly if it gets rid of political geriatrics such as Adams, Sinn Fein is evolving into a national party. And it will not merely be nibbling at Fianna Fail or the independent vote, for the Labour rump is an even sweeter prospect.
One of the truisms of politics is that the next election starts from the moment the last result is declared. One of the key dynamics of the new Dail will be the battle for supremacy between a Fianna Fail party haunted by the future and terrified of the past and a Sinn Fein party engaged in the difficult task of shedding old skins.
As for Fine Gael, if it has any sense it will start making nice with the independents, for if Labour feels the wolf's breath of Sinn Fein on its necks, those Fine Gael TDs will learn the hard way that no administration is unsinkable.
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