Tuesday 17 October 2017

Ivan Yates' predictions: who will make it to the Dáil - and whose heads will roll

From left: Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams, Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Tánaiste and Labour leader Joan Burton before their final TV debate, on RTÉ’s ‘Prime Time’. Photo:Tony Maxwell/PA Wire
From left: Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams, Taoiseach and Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and Tánaiste and Labour leader Joan Burton before their final TV debate, on RTÉ’s ‘Prime Time’. Photo:Tony Maxwell/PA Wire
Ivan Yates

Ivan Yates

It was a short, sharp, three-week blitzkrieg campaign. I have looked at it constituency by constituency, as you will see below. From my analysis, the gamechanger will be the decimation of Labour Party - denoting a shift to the hard left from a moderate social democracy. The outcome will probably also result in a new Labour leader, more than likely Ged Nash.

It will also produce the worst conceivable Fine Gael performance, given their prior expectations of 60 seats and upwards. Remember, they held 76 seats in 2011.

This will inevitability prompt a change of government, given that the Fine Gael/Labour Coalition will not be able to span the gap of the more than 20 TDs required for a working Dáil majority.

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