Is Bertie Ahern about to commit suicide? And if not, why not? A distasteful comment, of course -- almost as distasteful as Mr Ahern's suggestion last summer that critics of his economic policies ought to "commit suicide".

As we all know, Mr Ahern created the economic boom in 1997 and -- with the help of a handful of "entrepreneurs" -- has managed the economy superbly ever since. That's the fairytale that serious people have been very successfully selling in recent years.

Last July, at an ICTU conference, (in one of those wobblies he throws now and then) Mr Ahern denounced those "on the sidelines" who were "cribbing and moaning" about the economy. "I don't know how people who engage in that don't commit suicide", he snarled. His audience of trade union officials laughed and applauded.

Last week, Mr Ahern warned of a "hard year" ahead. It appears that the "serious problems" in the US are having a "knock-on effect for the world economy" and "we won't escape that". His remarks were described as "gloomy" and "downbeat".

By Mr Ahern's own criteria, this is cribbing and moaning and he ought to cut his own throat. It seems, however, that it might at last be fashionable to talk about the bizarre things that have been underpinning the global boom. Even Mr Ahern now thinks it's okay to do so.

Fine Gael immediately responded with a nonsensical and off-the-mark statement about a lack of competitiveness being at the root of it all.

It's exactly a year ago this week since this column raised the question of the bizarre circumstances supporting the boom. We suggested that we were being bullshitted by the cheerful chappies who told us that everything was fine, that the "market" would "correct" any minor faults, and that we should keep on buying and borrowing.

At that time, March 2007, the term "subprime mortgage" was virtually unknown here in public discourse. In the US, it had been recognised as a problem since January 2007. That column explained what the subprime mess was about: "Subprime is a technical term for someone who can't afford a mortgage -- so, you sell them one anyway, but at a rate even higher than the rate they couldn't afford in the first place. The lending institutions in turn sell the dodgy debt to other gamblers, spreading the risk -- and the instability -- ever further into the financial system."

The column referred to the huge levels of personal debt being encouraged in this country by the banks. And the "largely imaginary" wealth we supposedly owned because of grossly inflated house prices. It suggested that since many economists mostly work for the banks, and the politicians are in the pockets of the developers, we weren't getting a frank read on the economy.

This isn't one of those I-was-right-and-you-were-wrong diatribes beloved of the terminally insecure. As it happens, in matters financial -- whether global or personal -- I'm as dumb as a bag of hammers (and that March 2007 column was frank about that). I have a blind spot with financial instruments and dealings. My shortcomings in financial matters are real, as a glimpse of my personal finances would show.

So, how come this financial ignoramus was writing a column about subprime mortgages and the impending US recession a full year ago -- while the cheerful chappies were telling us to borrow and spend like there was no tomorrow?

Well, you don't have to be a financial genius to smell bullshit.

The Bullshit Brigade has many regiments. There are those who pepper us with nonsense about "the spark of innovation" and the "the flame of success", about how "everything starts with the entrepreneur".

We're told about the geniuses who took this country by the scruff of the neck and so on. We're told about the insightful politicians who consolidated the creations of the geniuses.

Mind you, to be honest, the people who churn out this nonsense are relatively okay. They're PR people, and PR people are in the bullshit business. But we also get regiments of po-faced journalists and platoons of "independent" economists who are supposedly objective. Yet, they transmit the same crap with even greater solemnity.

When house prices rise, we're told now is the time to buy, before prices rise further. When house prices fall we're told this is our chance to buy cheaply, before prices rise again.

The media wants to believe its sources. And the "independent" economists usually work for institutions that want us to keep spending and borrowing.

And heading up the Bullshit Brigade is Field Marshall Ahern, with his trusty batman, Corporal Cowen. Anyone who disputes the fairytale is "talking down the economy" and should commit suicide.

Last week, in the business section of this newspaper, Senator Shane Ross lauded a company executive who apparently gave frank and pessimistic answers to questions about his business. Ross seemed startled that a senior business type should tell the truth. That's how lost we are in bullshit.

Last January, in the business section of the Irish Independent, economist Jim Power pleaded with fellow economists and commentators to "give a true picture" of the "very challenging" economic prospects. "One is now fearful about saying anything negative, in case one gets vilified or accused of being a merchant of doom."

My understanding of Power's plea is that he knows that some have coldly lied to us, saying one thing in private and something else in public in order to encourage the debt fodder to continue borrowing and spending.

It's unpatriotic to "talk down the economy", but okay to talk people into ever-increasing debt.

Over the past dozen years, the international banking system has been storing up hundreds of billions, untold trillions, in bad debt. This was done because of the perpetual need to expand the market, to increase lending, to keep the music going for fear the dance would stop.

Reset charts are available showing the timescale on which US mortgage payers are due to pay increased premiums -- and they show that 2008 is a year in which even more subprime mortgages will default. And subprime mortgages are only part of it.

Large numbers of other kinds of adjustable US mortgages are scheduled to reset to higher interest rates right through 2011.

Our housing bubble has burst. Not a big deal. The global boom is subsiding. Not a big deal.

But these events are happening just as the global credit mechanism has frozen -- because trillions of dollars of bad debt mortgages have been sliced and diced and resold throughout the global economy.

Very big deal.

No bank knows just how much bad debt it carries hidden within various "financial instruments" it bought.

They're all afraid to lend to each other.

Suddenly, the fairytales have evaporated. The notion that this government -- or any other -- is in control of the economy is seen for the bullshit it is.

The US government throws hundreds of billions of dollars at the problem, the markets cheer up for about 20 minutes, then the underlying credit crisis snaps back.

Keep this in mind:

"Independent" economists and the journalists who rely on them are part of the Bullshit Brigade. Every time estate agents or developers open their mouths they're trying to sell us something. Employers always believe labour is overpaid, even at slave rates.

Bankers are literally made of bullshit.

In the months and years to come, various combinations of the above will seek to tighten our belts, to cut services, to shift the cost of their debacle onto us. The politicians will side with them.

Mr Ahern's buddies in the unions who think suicide is a joking matter will urge us to make sacrifices in the national interest.

All of them will lie, all of the time.