NAMA, Lisbon and Budget will require real leadership
Wednesday August 26 2009
RYANAIR boss Michael O'Leary will add some much needed pizzazz to the Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign today.
The motormouth airline executive is unlikely to provide the most compelling case for a 'Yes' vote and there's always the chance he will alienate as many people as he'll appeal to.
Nonetheless, his direct style will doubtless capture the imagination of the public.
And he'll be vastly more articulate than some of the business people adding their limited views to the debate.
The arrival of a range of business and non-political interested groups has given an added impetus to the 'Yes' campaign.
Within political circles though, there are definite concerns the referendum still hangs in the balance, with its passing by no means guaranteed at all.
In any other circumstances, the Lisbon II referendum would be the only item on the agenda for the Cabinet returning from their summer break.
When Taoiseach Brian Cowen meets with his sun-kissed ministers this morning, Lisbon will be competing with NAMA and the forthcoming Budget for attention.
The Bord Snip report is still reverberating in the public domain and the Commission on Taxation's report is coming on fast, as revealed in the Irish Independent in recent days.
These two reports will play a role not only in formulating Budget 2010 but also potentially in reforming the public finances in the longer run.
All told, the Government can brace itself for a rocky ride between now and the Christmas break.
That's if they last to the end of the year.
Avoid getting into conspiracy theories about the coalition's impending doom.
The reality is there are plenty of hurdles to be jumped in the coming months, with the capacity to bring down Cowen and/or his Government.
This Government is facing some defining decisions, which will have far-reaching implications for the future of the country for generations to come.
Finance Minister Brian Lenihan is beginning to fight back against the attacks on NAMA and can be expected to be far more visible in the coming weeks.
The Government appears to understand the public must be brought along with its plan to manage the overvalued property loans of Irish banks.
Let's face it, if there was a referendum on NAMA in the morning, it would lose on the simple basis that there are sufficient doubts in the public mindset to not back it.
But governments are elected to make fundamental decisions, rather than coming back to voters on such occasions.
The bank guarantee scheme of last September was a similarly contentious call, which needed to be made in a short time frame.
Although the figures involved are less mind-boggling, NAMA makes the bank guarantee scheme look as risky as buying a lottery ticket.
The bank guarantee scheme was about putting a safety net in place, in the event of a collapse, but NAMA is a real high-wire act.
To be fair to Lenihan, he has said the NAMA legislation was a draft, with changes to come and further explanations to follow. The precise amount of loans to be taken on by the taxpayer won't be known until the middle of next month -- if at all -- when he gives further details on the markdown or so-called haircut.
The finished package will still place an overwhelming level of debt on the shoulders of the nation, even if a return is envisaged in the longer run.
The saving grace for NAMA may be the guiding hand of the European Commission and the protection of the European Central Bank.
In return for the €90bn-odd worth of loans (property development and associated), the banks will get government bonds to allow them to get credit flowing again in the economy.
The government bonds from the National Treasury Management Agency can be used as collateral for availing of European Central Bank funding.
Far from being an unwieldy Big Brother approach, the involvement of the authorities in Brussels and Frankfurt is somewhat of a relief.
At least it will need the imprimatur of our European partners.
Against this backdrop lies the Lisbon II vote. At a time when the country's dependence on the EU is greater than ever and the benefits of the unions' financial strength are tangible, voters go to the polls.
More than a vote on the Lisbon Treaty itself, it is a vote on Ireland's relationship with the union.
Cowen will be aware of the consequences of a 'No' vote, although not necessarily its implications, as these are completely uncharted waters.
No other country has voted 'No' to the direction Europe is taking three times in a decade and therefore it's not actually possible to say what would happen.
But it won't be pretty.
The patience shown last summer after the first 'No' vote wouldn't be repeated.
On a domestic level, all bets are off for this Government, and Cowen himself.
The possibility of pushing through NAMA and a spending slashing, tax-hiking Budget on the back of the crisis of a 'No' vote would be unsustainable.
In the run up to Lisbon, the Taoiseach will get a prime opportunity to show the leadership he has promised and the frankness he concedes he needs to display.
He'd better take it.
It may be his last.
- Fionnan Sheahan
