Lenihan's PR blitz shows Cowen how it's really done
Wednesday September 02 2009
IT'S amazing how some people manage to score PR own goals from positions of strength. Take the past week. The much-hyped 46 anti-NAMA economists are now something of a toxic entity themselves.
After getting strips torn off them by former Taoiseach Garret FitzGerald for their irresponsible appreciation of figures, they have now gone to ground.
Notably, the 46 were not cited too often by the TDs and senators poring over the NAMA details at the Oireachtas finance committee. Their aspiration to be influential contributors to the NAMA debate is in tatters.
The Green Party made complete fools of themselves by bleating on with their concerns about NAMA, but not even bothering to show up when the issue was being teased out in a parliamentary forum.
Likewise, Fine Gael has managed to bizarrely inflict damage on their own economic credibility with their handling of the NAMA situation. A characteristically unconvincing performance by Enda Kenny on his party's banking plan was followed by an uncharacteristic slip of the tongue by Richard Bruton to put Fine Gael on the back foot.
The failure to clean up Bruton's pretty simple error, where he effectively referred to not paying back stable debt as opposed to risky debt, gave the Government an opportunity to target a hole in the party's argument about a good bank/ bad bank solution to the banking crisis.
He recognised the error himself straight away 10 days ago, but decided to correct the error in front of the TV cameras by conceding he made a mistake, thereby highlighting it further.
It was no accident Bruton was put in this rare position. Finance Minister Brian Lenihan had made an enormous song and dance about Bruton's apparent endorsement of banks defaulting on senior debt. A melodramatic letter to Kenny calling on Bruton to withdraw the damaging remark was part of a concerted campaign to boost public support for NAMA. Diminishing Fine Gael's argument was part of the strategy.
Brian Lenihan has played a blinder over the past week.
He may be presiding over the public finances of a country in the throes of the deepest recession of any advanced economy -- caused by his own party's policies.
He may be surrounded by former bank bosses and stretched property developers continuing to give two fingers to the taxpayer. And he may be about to embark on a risky venture potentially putting the country into hock to the tune of anything up to €90bn.
But he's winning the important PR battle hands down. Running a propaganda blitz with the same intensity as a general election campaign, Lenihan has swung the pendulum back in his favour.
NAMA is increasingly becoming the only show in town.
Fine Gael's plan has been picked and kicked apart. The party hasn't exactly helped itself by failing to line up independent economic analysts to endorse their proposals as the best of a host of bad options.
The Labour Party's nationalisation proposal has been gently rejected, but not dismissed outright as there is a realisation that the main banks may well need a further injection of capital and end up part-privatised with the State as a majority shareholder.
From the off, Lenihan's team have applied simple rapid rebuttal tactics by tackling their critics head on. Using his reputation as a respected economist, his adviser Alan Ahearne went for his former academic colleagues with gusto.
Rather than sending out to bat a Cabinet minister who might make a costly error in a debate, a Fianna Fail backbencher became the torch bearer against Fine Gael's golden boy George Lee. Frank Fahey's subtle mention that, among the senior debt Fine Gael was apparently talking about the banks defaulting upon, was money from credit unions was a real piece of work.
With a series of carefully timed interviews and presentations, Lenihan himself was a man on top of his brief and confident he was going to be proved right. The only unplanned intervention came from the most unlikely of sources. Garret FitzGerald's contribution was invaluable and floored all the critics.
Once he appeared at the committee on Monday afternoon, Lenihan had the momentum behind him. The lack of figures on the amount to be paid to the banks for the property loans means he's in a position of some disadvantage. And yet he emerged from the five-hour committee meeting unscathed.
When this discount or so-called 'haircut' is announced he may well suffer a backlash, but he's certainly in a far better position than a week ago.
There are lessons to be learned all round.
Fine Gael will do more advance preparation next time out. Gaggles of academics won't be sticking their necks out of their ivory towers without thinking first.
Moreover there is a message in all this for Lenihan's boss. Taoiseach Brian Cowen can certainly learn from displaying enthusiasm, aggression and confidence in selling a plan to the public. Lenihan's high-profile show is in stark contrast to Cowen's lacklustre displays on several fronts.
Looking ahead to challenges of the next three months, the Taoiseach should realise that sporadic appearances are no substitute for being the figurehead of a campaign.
After a decidedly shaky start, Lenihan is out-shining his colleagues. Cowen should take note.
