Fionnan Sheahan: Cowen clears hurdles but he must get off the fence
After a flurry of high-profile PR outings, the Taoiseach has lapsed back into his old habits, worse than ever before
THIS weekend Taoiseach Brian Cowen will reach the end of the 100 days he identified as crucial to the country's future.
The hurdles Cowen identified back at the start of September -- "the Lisbon Treaty, restructuring the banking and bringing forward the Budget" -- are all overcome, provided Budget 2010 passes, as expected.
The Taoiseach can justifiably breathe a sigh of relief at his Government remaining intact.
The Green Party's support was also secured by the renegotiation of the Programme for Government in this time.
Making it through to Christmas means the administration will pass the halfway point of its five-year term in office.
The prospects of the Coalition seeing out the full five years are certainly far stronger now.
After the as-bad-as-predicted battering his party took in the local and European elections, Cowen attempted to move on by shifting the focus on to those three major items on the Government's agenda.
He will now be hoping to enter the New Year with a renewed sense of purpose.
However, his standing is weakened by a series of self-inflicted injuries and question marks are being raised about his continued leadership.
Behind him, a trio of potential future leaders are flexing their muscles and growing in confidence.
Cowen's inadequate handling of the pay talks with the public sector unions and the unpaid leave debacle was certainly a turning point for the worst in his premiership.
Being wedded to the social partnership model of engagement in negotiations was not his failing. Not realising the weak position of the trade union leadership was a fatal flaw.
Cowen loyalists within Fianna Fail were openly critical of the Taoiseach's approach to the talks with the unions.
Rightly or wrongly, the perception is Brian Lenihan saved him from a calamitous decision by viewing the unpaid leave scheme sufficiently sceptically.
He admitted yesterday the unpaid leave proposal did not recognise the situation the country was in and this tallies with the Department of Finance's view through the talks. Lenihan's steady performance through the National Asset Management Agency debate and the Budget does not reflect positively on his boss.
It followed Cowen's out-of-touch response to the clerical child abuse report, where he astonishingly wound up being perceived as defending the attitude of the Vatican in using diplomatic niceties to avoid cooperating with the Murphy commission.
Again, previously loyal TDs openly expressed the view that the public mood warranted a stronger stance from the Taoiseach.
Cowen's weak approach to the unions and the Catholic hierarchy was not matched by two other would-be future leaders. Foreign Affairs Minister Micheal Martin leapt off the fence to take a swipe at the Vatican and summoned the Papal Nuncio to Iveagh House for a dressing down over the snubbing of a state investigation into sensitive affairs.
AND Justice Minister Dermot Ahern was decisive in his countering of a thinly-veiled strike threat from the Garda Representative Association, which followed a commanding response to the Murphy commission's publication.
Cowen still has the advantage of the Catch-22 predicament facing a prospective Brutus.
Remove the Taoiseach and leader of Fianna Fail and you most likely spark the collapse of the Government and an immediate general election.
A third incumbent in the post in the lifetime of the Government would perhaps be a credibility step too far for the Green Party.
A coup would also divide the party and destabilise Fianna Fail. On the flip side, leave Cowen in position and he leads the party into a general election in 2012, when the economic picture might have improved.
Nonetheless, Fianna Fail TDs acknowledge a general election will, in all likelihood, end their time in power, although the relatively smooth passage of the Budget will raise hopes of a revival.
The prevailing wisdom is to leave Cowen in place until the election and then allow whoever emerges to rejuvenate the party in opposition.
Of course, this assumes Fine Gael and Labour have the capacity to get into government, which can never be taken for granted.
Unfortunately for the Taoiseach, his failure to take a firm grip of the situation has raised doubts over this strategy.
Cowen's not just poor in the public eye, but is viewed as uncomfortable in the post of Taoiseach in general.
And he's had too many false dawns.
In a famously frank interview with Jody Corcoran in the 'Sunday Independent' back in August, prior to the start of the 100 days, Cowen admitted to personal failings as a leader.
"I have thought about my own style of leadership. I take the criticism. We have to get out there more, me included. I have no problem with that. I am going to do that by being out there, meeting communities and getting on with the job I am doing. And apart from doing the job -- just getting out there and communicating the message as well. That's the important thing."
Cowen also vowed to cut out the jargon and simplify his message for impact purposes.
After a flurry of high-profile PR outings, the Taoiseach has lapsed back into his old habits, worse than ever before.
At this stage it has to just be accepted he's never going to change his style and connect with the public. Lenihan, Martin and Ahern do not suffer from this problem and remain as alternatives to a leader with diminished authority, even if he is still battling on.
- Fionnan Sheahan
Irish Independent
