Cowen holds on tight to crown amid poll pressure
'Knives out for Mac'. The headline in the Irish Independent three days after the 2004 local and European elections summed up the blame game in full swing.
Fianna Fail were down to just four MEPs, from six beforehand, and lost 80 seats in the local elections on the back of its worst ever result.
The fingers were pointing at then Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy -- and not just from the Fianna Fail backbenches. The feeling was mutual in Government Buildings and McCreevy was identified as the scapegoat.
Former Taoiseach Bertie Ahern acted decisively -- for once -- to show the party and the country he had learned from the humbling lesson.
Within months, McCreevy was reluctantly exiled to Brussels as the European Commissioner, Fianna Fail went to find its soul in Inchydoney with Fr Sean Healy of CORI and the Cabinet was reshuffled with promises of a change in ideology.
Moreover, Ahern remained in control at all times.
The key developments from five years ago were the growth of Sinn Fein and the rejuvenation of Fine Gael.
But Sinn Fein were never going to challenge Fianna Fail outside of the working class areas and Fine Gael was still 50 seats behind Fianna Fail in the Dail.
The stakes are higher now as Taoiseach Brian Cowen faces into his first electoral contest as Fianna Fail leader with a triple whammy on 'Super Friday', June 5, of local, European and by-elections.
Fine Gael is now a real threat to Fianna Fail and a strong result at the polls will reinforce their claims to be the coming force on their way to power.
It's not the election result that will determine Cowen's fate; it's how he deals with the fallout.
Fianna Fail are braced for a savaging at the polls. Anything better than a finish in the mid-20pc support is almost a good result. The party's campaign so far has been less than ideal.
Against the backdrop of the economic downturn, the party's candidates are facing a doorstep backlash, internal faction fighting and defections over candidate selection strategy is rife and filling the party tickets in the European elections has proven a chore.
Last week, Fine Gael unveiled George Lee as its celebrity signing. Today, Fianna Fail will announce Pat 'the Cope' Gallagher as its European candidate.
The contrast is stark.
Just a year on from being elected as party leader, Cowen's status is less than totally secure.
Following polling day, he will have to cope with the aftermath.The low expectations will help to lessen the impact.
Since late last year, many TDs agreed the June elections will be telling.
"For him to be in trouble, it will have to be a total wipeout and that means two European seats, third in the by-elections and a slaughter in the locals. Then it's 50/50 on a leadership heave," a backbencher said. "He'll have to manage it. One of the things coming across is people are not annoyed with Fianna Fail per se, more with the top people in government. But there is nothing in the offing until the offing arrives. Confidence is shaken though," another TD said.
The anticipated recriminations in the party won't factor in the difficult decisions the Government is taking.
Cowen came in as the ultimate party organisation man, but surprisingly there are question marks in this regard.
"One thing is certain, there will be a bloodbath over whether the right candidates were selected. The wheels fell off the wagon in the case of Ireland North-West. At council level, there will be a lot of blame laid at Mary Coughlan's door because she chaired the committee picking candidates and they made some very strange decisions," an FF TD said.
The party hierarchy hopes there won't be a "meltdown" and the candidates on the ground will rise above the dissatisfaction with the Government.
Cowen has an enormous belief in the track records and work ethic of local councillors and candidates and feels they can pull through.
And if the hiding does come to pass, there are still doubts over whether there would be any moves on his leadership and where it would actually come from.
"There's two questions: (a) will any of them have the balls to try to heave him? (b) will they be any good?
"Brian Cowen is a politician and not a bad one. He's not going to want to go down in history like this. He's going to box off the ropes," a well-placed source said.
"Remember, he that wieldeth the knife, rarely wears the crown."
Without a genuine heavy-hitter seeking to take on Cowen, any mutiny would be destined to fail.
The list of potential successors to Cowen is dwindling from the heyday when a healthy half dozen or more of the present batch of cabinet ministers was seen as leadership material.
Certainly Mary Coughlan is out of the equation and Brian Lenihan's reputation will take some time to recover.
Dermot Ahern is seen as the "tough guy" by some TDs, who maintain he would be the man required in these difficult times.
But his lack of genuine popularity in the parliamentary party and failure to cultivate a support group begs the question of where the wave of support would begin.
His needless provocation of Green Party sensitivities with his approach to the blasphemy kite-flying and the Equality Authority cuts has left some pondering what he is up to and if he would be capable of maintaining a united coalition and party.
Micheal Martin is still the choice if you want a Bertie Ahern-style figure who would actually be liked by the public, but his penchant for kicking decisions to touch is hardly what's required in the current climate.
Nonetheless, if the backbenchers get the feeling Cowen is dead wood, then they'll start to look around.
Cowen would want to learn from his predecessor and line up his response.
It's not the fall that kills you -- it's the sudden stop at the end.
fsheahan@independent.ie
- Fionnan Sheahan
