A defining moment for the future of our nation
A DEFINING moment. Mess it up this time and there's no forgiving it. When Brian Lenihan takes to his feet at 3.45pm this afternoon, a positive reception to the outcome will be awaited more in hope than expectation.
After the blunders of the previous attempts to whip the public finances into shape, there can't be enormous confidence that the Government will get it right this time.
And yet the Cabinet has put so much time into preparing for this event, you've got to think every aspect of this emergency Budget has been examined upside down and back to front.
The i's are dotted and the t's are crossed -- presumably.
Sure, there will be measures included that will be tough and unpopular. This is a certainty.
No ordinary member of the public likes to see taxes going up and public spending coming down.
The reality is, Middle Ireland is going to be hit, and hit hard, in the back pocket as the income levy rises.
The raising of the PRSI ceiling will also cost middle income earners. And this will be difficult to sell.
It remains to be seen if a public still struggling to come to terms with the downturn in the economy will be able to grasp the necessity to take a further hit to incomes.
Slashing expenditure across every department by about 2pc will inevitably result in knock-on effects to frontline services.
What can't be tolerated, though, is an unpalatable and ill-conceived surprise that will result in the backlash centring around a single issue.
The preparatory work is key in that regard. The failure to have the homework done on the over-70s medical card resulted in the snowballing of discontent against last October's Budget.
A combination of ignorance and arrogance meant it took an entire 48 hours to even get the actual income thresholds put together. By then it was too late.
The lesson wasn't actually learned when the public sector pension levy emerged in February as there was confusion about the contribution being on gross or net figures.
At that point, the level of acknowledgement of the economic crisis had escalated to such a degree that the measure still proceeded.
Acknowledgement and acceptance is not the same.
There may be an acknowledgement of the magnitude of the problem without an acceptance of the steps needed to rectify it.
The room for error on this occasion is far less than previously.
The reception on the home front to the emergency Budget is actually far less important than how it is greeted abroad.
The Budget needs to be credible to that great intangible -- the international markets.
The Government is borrowing way beyond what is acceptable to run the country. This money is now becoming harder to obtain and more expensive.
The delivery of a Budget that is viewed as going far enough to engender a sense of confidence that Ireland as a nation is getting to grips with scale of the fiscal crisis befalling the country is absolutely vital.
Nobody is telling the Government to throw the baby out with the bath water, just to show they are on top of it and have a plan.
There'll be a lot of references today to five-year plans, bringing the deficit under control, and the various intertwined strands of the economic strategy -- public finances, banking system and job protection.
The delicate balancing act between tax increases, spending cuts and borrowing is difficult.
The public response to the Budget is actually important, so the tone set by the Minister for Finance and Taoiseach Brian Cowen will be crucial.
The move yesterday to sack a quarter of the junior ministers didn't go exceptionally far, but it was a welcome development as it showed an acceptance of the need to tackle the inordinate cost and inefficiency of running Government.
Mr Cowen has got to the break of the ball. While he won't gain major plaudits, at least he can't be accused of not doing anything.
It was a shrewd political move.
The Taoiseach could go further and actually refresh his ranks by bringing up some of the new and younger TDs who came in two years ago.
FF backbenchers Margaret Conlon, Thomas Byrne, Dara Calleary, Darragh O'Brien, Niall Collins, Timmy Dooley and Michael McGrath have all shown they have the potential for future promotion -- so why not now?
Certainly they can't do a more low-impact job than some of the present incumbents.
Mr Cowen is likely to retain those junior ministers who he himself appointed a year ago for the first time to give them a chance to prove their worth.
Outside of this cohort, Dick Roche and Conor Lenihan are among the few to justify their presence, while Billy Kelleher and Peter Power are deserving of retention.
Pat Carey and Barry Andrews are performing on a higher stage so the remaining 13 places are in the mix.
A clearout at this level would give a signal that Mr Cowen's government was open to new thinking and fresh blood. This is all an afterthought to today's events.
Fine Gael and the Labour Party accept the need for dramatic action, so their reaction will be noted with interest.
Now is not the time for populism.
However, this Government was elected with a majority and a mandate to rule so the responsibility falls primarily on its shoulders.
Getting it right is not just about future electoral gains, it's about doing their duty.
It's a defining moment for Brian Cowen, a defining moment for Brian Lenihan, the Irish economy, how it is viewed abroad, and for the country at large.
fsheahan@independent.ie
