Saturday 10 December 2016

Eoghan Harris: Enda of Arabia likely to get his majority, but it is not written

Published 12/01/2014 | 02:30

Cartoon: Jim Cogan
Cartoon: Jim Cogan

RECENT polls and solid signs of economic recovery reinforce my two basic convictions about the foreseeable future of Irish politics. First, barring events, dear boy, events -- and, of course, Lucinda Creighton -- the elusive majority that escaped Enda Kenny in 2011 is likely to be his in 2016.

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Second, Sinn Fein, playing the long game, will go on making gains among the group that matters most to our future: the 18-24 generation. Like the 1898 centenary of the '98 Rising and the 1966 half-centenary of the Easter Rising, 2016 will bring new recruits to the republican movement. Sinn Fein will benefit most.

Both these developments will leave Old Labour behind. But that will not bother Blue Labour, the rump of the Workers Party/ Democratic Left within the Labour Party, the reinforcing rod in the concrete of the Coalition, a rump far more loyal to Kenny than many of his backbenchers.

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