Saturday 3 December 2016

Sugar-coated storytelling dressed up as an economic forecast

Published 29/04/2015 | 02:30

A table showing labour productivity growth projections based on the Government's Spring Economic Statement
A table showing labour productivity growth projections based on the Government's Spring Economic Statement

Today, this column is going to be uncharacteristically blunt. This grumpiness is because much of yesterday was spent reading the 62-page economic document that the Government unveiled as part of its new 'Spring Economic Bulletin.'

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These are hours I will never get back, so you will forgive my tetchiness when I tell you that this document purports to forecast the economy's growth path over the coming years without telling us how or why the economy is likely to achieve these growth rates. As a result, its more a work of creative fiction than economics.

What's more, not only does it tell us nothing about the how or the why, it's pretty ambiguous on the what.

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