News Dan O'Brien

Sunday 4 December 2016

Relax: Donald Trump can't win

There have been shocks aplenty in 2016, but a Trump victory won't be another one

Published 14/08/2016 | 02:30

We've been Trumped: People are much better at evaluating others than they are at weighing up complex issues. Photo: Getty
We've been Trumped: People are much better at evaluating others than they are at weighing up complex issues. Photo: Getty

The extraordinary miscalculation of so many normally savvy people - from bookies to financiers - of the risk that British people would vote for Brexit led to a great deal of shock. Among the consequences was a reappraisal of Donald Trump's chances of becoming president of the US. That the British referendum was followed within weeks by Trump's best-ever poll ratings (which have slipped considerably since) gave many commentators cause to claim that he is in with a real chance.

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They are wrong. Trump has almost no chance of winning in November.

Consider the Brexit effect first. It is by now the conventional wisdom that anger is the spirit of the age. If the British public is so angry with the country's "elites" and was prepared to vote for a course of action that the same elites said would be costly and damaging, then, the argument goes, it is more possible than previously thought that Americans could vote for a candidate whose fitness for the role of president has been questioned in an unprecedented manner.

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