Sunday 11 December 2016

Trump card could see off Ireland's run of good luck

Fortune helped the Irish economy in recent years but there are signs this happy spell may end soon

Published 13/11/2016 | 02:30

All this will be yours: House Speaker Paul Ryan shows President-elect Trump and his wife Melania the view from the Speaker's Balcony at the US Capitol last week Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images
All this will be yours: House Speaker Paul Ryan shows President-elect Trump and his wife Melania the view from the Speaker's Balcony at the US Capitol last week Photo: Zach Gibson/Getty Images

Trump's victory is the second political surprise of 2016 with negative consequences for Ireland, following the UK's Brexit decision at the end of June. There could be further negative surprises from European electorates in 2017.

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Unfortunately the response from the Irish Government has been a further postponement of budget balance in the measures announced on October 11, followed by an apparent willingness to borrow more to meet public service pay demands. If the economy slows down, the public finances could worsen again very quickly.

The recovery in the Irish economy over the past few years is due in large degree to a run of pure good luck. There have been three favourable influences, all the result of external developments rather than the fruits of domestic policy. The three are:

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