FF is blowing chance to sweeten bitter pill
Fianna Fail needs some elementary lessons in the politics of what not to do in a critical national emergency
THINGS have come to a pretty pass when Fianna Fail is receiving a lesson in politics from Swedes and Danes. None of your John O'Conor-style Masterclass either, but the equivalent of 'Chapter One: Politics for Beginners'.
Or maybe for Old Stagers. It is a curious fact that, the longer politicians are in office, the worse they get at politics.
Fianna Fail, we hardly need reminding, have has been in office almost continuously for more than 20 years. The blunting of their political antennae seems the only explanation for two cardinal errors: picking off individual targets for pain, and letting the few available sweeteners dribble away to little effect. Both a former Danish prime minister, and a former adviser to the Swedish prime minister, pointed out in Dublin last week that, if one has to impose hardship, spread it thick and make sure no citizen escapes entirely. That way, they are all furious and get in each other's way.
It is much easier for a government to ignore a cacophony from all sides than complaints from particular groups. Especially if that particular group is of public sector workers, with the power to disrupt everyday life.
There is no doubt that the public sector feel they have been picked upon unfairly. Never mind the observation from one neo-liberal last week that there is something strange in the sight of some of the world's best-paid police officers marching in the ranks of the lower-paid, that is how they see it.
The trouble is, that it is all very serious. David Begg, the president of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, talked about "doomsday" if the national day of industrial action took place. He is a man who chooses his words carefully. One suspects that he was not just thinking of the actual disruption (it can hardly be that bad!); but was dropping a hint that it might mark the last chance to get any kind of national response to this critical national emergency.
The curious thing is that the financial markets, the economic analysts and the trade unions are on the same side on this one. Oh yes, and the EU Commission too. They all want the Government to produce a detailed strategy for at least the next three years, covering the billions to be raised in taxes -- upon whom and how -- and the billions to be saved in spending -- from whom and how.
The markets and the economists want something credible to show that Ireland can get to the Year of Recovery (let's say 2012) without incurring an insupportable burden of debt along the way. Believe me, this will not be easy. It will require eye-watering increases in taxation and unprecedented control on public spending.
But if people see in detail that even this would leave us with a national debt four times last year's figure, they will have to put up some very convincing arguments as to why they should be spared. The politics will come in making sure that no-one is spared, and that it can be claimed that each is paying according to their means.
There is plenty of evidence that the trade union leadership desperately wants some reason to tell its members that strikes and protests can lead only to far worse outcomes, where neither pay nor pensions would be safe. How extraordinary then, to see government measures which might form part of a negotiated package being wasted on the desert air.
There was the agreement with the banks to prevent people being forced to leave their homes because of mortgage arrears. Last week came reports of a scheme to let unemployed workers keep part of their dole so that employers could hire them on lower gross wages for the same take-home pay. There is also talk of state-backed "internship" in companies for unemployed graduates.
Any or all of these could have been offered as concessions to the unions in consultations (no more negotiations, please), on the National Austerity Plan. Congress's own 10-point plan, as well as seeking proportionate tax hikes, wants schemes to return the unemployed to work and a three-year moratorium on house foreclosures
The Tanaiste, however, implies that all is now set fair until the budget in December. When, presumably, Mr Lenihan will hit the levy-livid public sector workers with higher income tax, higher fuel tax, and maybe higher PRSI and a house tax. Now that will get them going -- if we're still in business by then.
- Brendan Keenan
